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Houston Astros at Washington Nationals

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 5:07 p.m. PT


Probable pitchers: Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA)

Just like that, this year’s World Series is notched at 2-2, with the road team being victorious in each of the first four meetings. Tonight’s critical Game 5 affair marks the final game at Nationals Park, and it also brings about a Game 1 rematch featuring two Cy Young-caliber starters.

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Of course, there was a surprising result in regards to the over/under of the series opener, which saw the first encounter between Cole and Scherzer end up beyond the total of 6.5. Neither starter was even bad or anything, though, making it curious that the rematch — from a National League park, no less — would draw an over/under that’s actually a half-run higher.

With that extra room and two top-notch pitchers more likely to be on their usual game this time, it looks like the wise call to go under.  It can’t be stressed enough: Cole was enjoying an otherworldly run prior to his outing this past Tuesday. To be specific, he was 19-0 (!) with a sparkling 1.58 ERA in his previous 25 starts dating back to May. Cole may also get a boost from Washington’s recent power outage at the plate, as they’ve managed only a pair of runs total in the two games at home.

The Astros bats came alive for their highest scoring tally (eight runs) of this World Series last night but it wasn’t as convincing as it sounds (ie. needing a grand slam off Fernando Rodney, who fortunately won’t be involved this evening).

Either way, you always have to feel good betting on Scherzer to come through. After a rare blip of disappointment in the NL Wild Card Game, the 12-year veteran has delivered as much as you could ask for, winning all three of his starts since, not to mention clocking in with a huge relief appearance that was integral in a needed win. Collectively, he only yielded three runs combined and struck out 28 batters in the four games, spanning 20 innings.

With the scenario of being able to take a decisive 3-2 lead before the series shifts back to Houston, it’s also plausible that both lineups simply tighten up and press, making it even more challenging when dealing with these two overpowering starters. Play: UNDER 7 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Nationals Over 8.5 (WIN)

2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*

Regular Season: 89-78-12, +1.05 units

Playoffs: 14-7-1, +3 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit (playoffs 0.5 unit)

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