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Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Gabriel Ynoa (0-4, 5.65 ERA) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (3-5, 5.15 ERA)

Yes, this isn’t the ideal game to have action on when you roll with one play a day but I think there could still be a profitable opportunity nonetheless.

Kikuchi’s first season in the Major Leagues after playing professionally in Japan for seven years has not gone so rosy, as the left-hander sports a 5.15 ERA on the season. A lot of damage has come against him lately, with Kikuchi yielding exactly six earned runs in three of his past four starts.

Luckily, the 28-year-old gets a bit of a favorable matchup today that can aid him in getting back on track. After all, Kikuchi carried a mid-3’s ERA as recent as a month ago. In effort to get closer to that mark again, he’ll start by trying to hold off an Orioles offense into that ranks 24th in baseball in team OPS (.697) against southpaws.

Baltimore’s .669 OPS on the road is also worst in the American League, so working from (what is typically) hitter-friendly T-Mobile Park can only help Kikuchi’s cause.

Meanwhile, Ynoa’s cause is still trying to establish himself as a legitimate starting pitcher in the big leagues. The third-year right-hander has offered up mixed results thus far.

But Ynoa has also shown potential he can be steady. The former New York Met logged five innings in each of his last four assignments, and although he gave up six runs his last time out, it’s the only time Ynoa has allowed more than three runs in a start.

Being a day game after a night game, some regulars between the two sides are expected to sit in this series finale, and given that this is the Orioles and Mariners at hand, it will only be helpful in keeping the final score on the low side. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-115)

Yesterday’s Result: Twins-Royals Under 10 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 43-37-6, +1.7 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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