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Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 11

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Jacob Waguespack (1-0, 5.93 ERA) vs. Tyler Alexander (0-0, 3.60 ERA)

No love for Waguespack from the linesmakers? It’s pretty rare to see an over/under this high for a game in Detroit, which involves what is more of a pitcher’s park, but given what these two clubs manufactured in the first two games of this series (25 runs total), perhaps it’s reasonable for a 2019 season game.

It’s not like this is a stellar pitching matchup either but I think both of these rookie starters, with a combined two career Major League starts between them, are in spots today in which they can succeed — or at least hang in there for such a high total.

Waguespack has been up a bit longer, pitching in three games and holding his own despite what his 5.93 ERA might say. His last two (one start) both came against the dangerous Boston Red Sox in back-to-back appearances and relatively survived. In this assignment, he gets a lighter-hitting Tigers offense that has scored the fewest runs of any team in the bigs. They’ve also lost six in a row, scoring just 17 runs during this streak. Not only that, Miguel Cabrera is out of the lineup, too.

Alexander was up only to make a start at the beginning of this month, and while his numbers in the minors this year don’t suggest it, the 25-year-old left-hander actually fared decently, yielding only five baserunners and two runs in five solid innings against the Chicago White Sox.

For his second outing in the big leagues, Alexander draws a start opposite a team that doesn’t hit lefties well, ranking tied for 21st in baseball in team batting average (.244) and 25th in OPS (.714) with a southpaw on the hill. Additionally, the Blue Jays aren’t as dangerous away from Rogers Centre, sporting an offense that is 19th in team batting average (.246) and 23rd in OPS (.718) on the road.

Based on his pair of ensuing minor league outings following his MLB debut, in which Alexander looked improved from earlier in the campaign (probably related to a boost in confidence), there’s a decent chance he at least is competitive and helps out this under wager. Play: UNDER 11 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Cubs Under 12 (“WIN”)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 55-47-8, +2.5 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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