MLB Over/Under Bet: Enlisting Lester’s home prowess

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Oakland Athletics at Chicago Cubs

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 5:05 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Brett Anderson (9-7, 4.04 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (9-7, 3.86 ERA)

Whenever Lester is dealing at home, he’s pretty much as steady as they get. That’s typically been the case since the left-hander joined the Cubs four years ago, and it’s a trend that has once again rung true in 2019.

In his 11 starts at Wrigley Field this year, Lester is 6-2 to go with a nice 2.95 ERA, easily besting the 3-5 record and 4.81 ERA he’s posted on the road. Additionally, he’s allowed no more than four runs in each of his outings within the Friendly Confines.

For his career now, Lester is a remarkable 38-20 in 82 assignments on the north side with a 3.29 ERA. The A’s have raked left-handed pitching this year but doing it in Lester’s fortress will be a tall task, especially if slugger Khris Davis has to remain on the bench due to National League rules.

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Anderson holds similar lifetime home-and-road splits, which at first glance doesn’t put him in a position to succeed on this night, being away from Oakland. However, the opposite effect has actually taken place for the veteran southpaw this season, with Anderson surprisingly being notably better on the road. His ERA outside of the Oakland Coliseum (3.49 ERA) is more than a full run lower than it is at home (4.65).

While a date with the Cubs is suboptimal, this still might be a spot Anderson can come through with a solid showing. He’ll be facing an offense that ranks third from the bottom in team batting average opposite left-handers (.236) while unhealthily striking out once every 3.39 at-bats when a lefty is on the hill. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Tigers Under 9 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 62-55-9, +0.55 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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