Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Max Fried (14-4, 3.84 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (9-7, 4.40 ERA)
For the second time in two weeks, two underrated starting pitchers, Fried and Wheeler, will square off, this time in the Big Apple. And this time around, both are getting a lot more respect from the powers that be, drawing a total of 8, whereas in their matchup on August 13, the over/under was 9.5 — the difference between Citi Field and SunTrust Park simply is not 1.5 runs, meaning the linesmakers rightfully anticipate a lower-scoring affair here.
As you may recall, Fried was my top sleeper entering the campaign and he has more than delivered, carrying a 14-4 record and 3.84 ERA into this showdown. He’s also in a groove since the All-Star break that is reminiscent of his early-season work. Fried’s strung together a 2.76 ERA in the second half, allowing three runs or fewer in five of six starts.
The left-hander has faced New York three times this season, notching a 3.18 ERA in those outings while keeping the ball in the park, as he has not allowed a single homer to the Mets. In fact, that’s been the case ever since Fried first came up two years ago. For his career, he’s yielded no home runs in 31.1 innings and has a 2.30 ERA to show for it in those encounters.
Although it’s not really been the case his season, Wheeler — who is a Georgia native — has a solid track record opposite tonight’s opponent as well. The seventh-year right-hander is 6-5 with a 3.78 ERA in 13 career dates with the Braves. He has a 5.82 ERA in three meetings with Atlanta this season but none of those efforts were terrible and now he’s getting a banged-up version of their lineup.
The same goes for Fried and a Mets offense that is without key players at the moment. Both starters are capable of effectively going deep into this game and leading the way. Play: UNDER 8 (-105)
Yesterday’s Result: Red Sox-Padres Under 8.5 (loss)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 70-63-10, -0.85 unit
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit