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Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over/Under: 10

First pitch: 6:40 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Chi Chi Gonzalez (0-4, 6.57 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (2-3, 2.58 ERA)

When a starting pitcher has been so steady, it’s not a bad idea to attempt to keep riding them, even if said pitcher happens to be a 24-year-old rookie.

Since first coming to the big leagues on June 20, Gallen has been nothing short of solid, engineering a desirable 2.58 ERA and being very consistent in doing so. In all but one of his nine starts, the right-hander yielded no more than two runs, and in that one assignment where he gave up more, it was only three runs in five frames.

Gallen got his first taste of tonight’s opponent his last time out, relatively surviving in Coors Field where he allowed a pair of runs in four innings (albeit while scattering nine hits).

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This time around, he gets the Rockies on a more even playing field (literally). Colorado is only ahead of the light-hitting Miami Marlins offense in terms of runs scored per game on the road (4.23) in the National League.

While Chase Field is more of a hitter’s park, Gallen was excellent in his lone home start as a Diamondback a couple of weeks ago, notching five scoreless innings against a potent Philadelphia Phillies batting order and issuing only a single hit.

Without question, there’s automatically some risk when taking an under involving a starter like Gonzalez — who hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2016 prior to this season.

That could be where the value comes in, however. Gonzalez wasn’t terrible during his initial years at this level during his tenure with the Texas Rangers and he actually hasn’t been bad at the moment despite what his 6.57 ERA (which is a little inflated because of one poor relief appearance) might say.

Gonzalez has made five starts with Colorado and he surrendered no more than three earned runs in each of the first four. Though he was tagged for five runs in five innings in his last outing, Gonzalez deserves credit for holding his own for a guy that had been out of the league for a considerable period of time.

Luckily, it’s a decently high total, being 10, so Gonzalez will have some room for error in regards to this bet. If he can continue to hang in there, while Gallen continues his marvelous work, the main ingredients are there for to initiate a low-scoring series opener on this Monday night in Arizona. Play: UNDER 10 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Angels Under 9.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 67-61-10, -1.55 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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