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Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Trevor Bauer (10-12, 4.55 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (3-5, 2.53 ERA)

Don’t be confused by Gallen’s record. If the Arizona right-hander was in a major market, Gallen would be getting a ton more attention right now for what he’s accomplished in his first 14 career outings.

In fact, Gallen is only the second rookie in history to begin his tenure in the big leagues with that many starts allowing three runs or fewer. The record belongs to Steve Rogers, who strung together 18 such performances in a row out of the gate in 1973 for the Montreal Expos.

Not only that, Gallen has been a darling for unders during this remarkable run, seeing such bets go 11-2-1 in his starts — including 11-0-1 in the last 12. He’s obviously played a large role in that, yielding no more than a pair of runs in all but three of his efforts.

Like his counterpart today, Bauer was also dealt prior to this year’s trade deadline, except in the case of the former Cleveland Indian, his quality of work has gone way down since being acquired. After all, he’s currently saddled with a very uncharacteristic 7.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his nine starts with his new team.

But just as I wrote about for his last assignment (an under bet we won on Tuesday), the talented nine-year veteran is much better than that and Bauer should be expected to close out the campaign strong. He’s too prideful to go into the offseason with such a bad taste in his mouth and still has the tools to get in his usual groove.

Bauer’s most recent start was a good reminder of the elite level he’s capable of pitching at, even carrying a no-hitter into the sixth inning. I think he’ll also get an extra boost from returning to where he originally started his major league career — Arizona — as this will only be his fourth start ever in the desert (second as a visitor). Play: UNDER 8.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Cardinals Under 7.5 (WIN)

2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 82-73-10, -0.40 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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