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Friday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Handicapping Giants Home Opener

Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants  Over/Under: 7

First Pitch 1:35 p.m. PT/ 4:35 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Tyler Glasnow (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Dereck Rodriguez (1-0, 3.60 ERA)  

No team has been more rewarding for under bets than the Rays, who have seen such wagers go a perfect 7-0 thus far.

The offense has been a big reason for that, scoring just 22 total runs in those games and producing a not-pretty .211 team batting average. That number ranks them 23rd in the early going.

It’s been the pitching, though, that has helped most to maintain those low final scores. In fact, their team 1.63 ERA is the best in the game. Glasnow has contributed to that effort, giving up only a single run in his five innings of work last Saturday opposite a tough Astros lineup.

He’s got a considerably easier matchup in his next turn in San Francisco’s home opener, as the Giants rank even below Tampa with just 17 total runs scored in their 7 games.

Furthermore, the Giants aren’t as much of a power threat when playing in front of the home fans. Dating back to 2015, they have finished in the bottom three of baseball in home runs at home as a team.

Luckily, their pitcher, Rodriguez, is typically very good at home, at least based on his excellent rookie campaign a year ago. He recorded a dandy 2.68 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .204 batting average against in his 12 starts (and one relief outing) in front of the AT&T Park — err, now Oracle Park faithful. In addition, only once in those 12 starts (his last one) did Rodriguez allow more than three runs.

With this bet, wait up until first pitch like I am to see if the line reaches 7.5, which is possible considering the juice currently on the over. Even if it does not reach that, I’ll still be on Under 7 as my play for today.

Play: PUSH    UNDER 7 (or 7.5)

Yesterday’s Result: Royals-Tigers Under 8 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 2-6, -4.8 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 uni

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2019 MLB (0-0-1) Overall Record: 2-6-1

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