MLB Over/Under Bet: Handicapping Turnbull’s first start back

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Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Lucas Giolito (11-5, 3.39 ERA) vs. Spencer Turnbull (3-9, 3.65 ERA)

A bit curious to see the over/under as high as 9 for this matchup. That might have something to do with Turnbull apparently still flying under the radar.

Before going on the disabled… err, injured list in mid-July, Turnbull was actually having himself a fabulous rookie campaign. He’s easily been one of Detroit’s lone bright spots this season and while his 3-9 record doesn’t show it, Turnbull has been solid in constructing a respectable 3.65 ERA.

He’s been pretty consistent, too. In 16 of his 19 starts, the 2014 second-round draft choice has yielded three earned runs or fewer. And for any questions about Turnbull’s health, with this being his first start back, the right-hander made one rehab start, amassing seven strikeouts in 3.2 shutout innings for Triple-A Toledo while scattering only a single baserunner.

Giolito, meanwhile, keeps chugging along nicely. After logging seven innings of one-run ball his last time out, the fourth-year righty has logged a quality start in three of his four assignments since the All-Star break.

That string of good pitching figures to continue on this night against the lowest scoring team (3.60 runs per game) in all of baseball. It will actually help that Giolito gets to pitch in their ballpark, as he’s continued to be better on the road than at home.

In 10 starts away from Chicago, Giolito holds a 2.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, dwarfing the 4.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIPA he’s posted from U.S. Cellular Field. Play: UNDER 9 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Marlins-Rays Under 8 (“loss”)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 62-54-9, +1.75 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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