MLB Over/Under Bet: How to play that Bass-itt

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Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

Over/Under: 10.5

First pitch: 1:05 p.m. PT

TV: FS1

Probable pitchers: Rogelio Armenteros (1-0, 1.93 ERA) vs. Chris Bassitt (8-5, 3.56 ERA)

It is extremely, extremely rare for an over/under to be this high in a game taking place at the Oakland Coliseum, but for whatever interesting reasons the linesmakers have, here we are with a total of 10.5 involving a pitching matchup that isn’t bad at all.

Check Out Baseball Betting Content Here

Bassitt certainly deserves more respect in the lines-making process. The right-hander is enjoying his best full season during his time in the major leagues, having a career-high 20 starts under his belt now, which he utilized to churn out a very respectable 8-5 record and 3.56 ERA.

Most impressive of all, Bassitt has held opponents to just a .221 batting average, tying him with Chris Sale for the sixth-lowest mark in the league.

The thing about Bassitt is that he typically pitches better at home than on the road. The six-year veteran holds a clean 3.06 ERA and has yielded only three homers in his eight assignments in Oakland this season, easily besting the 3.92 ERA and 13 home runs he’s allowed away from home. He’s continued a career-long trend, as Bassitt has a lifetime 2.85 ERA at the Coliseum. By comparison, he owns a 4.38 ERA for his career on the road.

We haven’t seen much of Armenteros, who is being summoned from Triple-A Round Rock to make this spot start. That’s something that can always bring upon a tricky variable, with this only being the 24-year-old’s second start (and fifth appearance) in the big leagues.

However, Armenteros shined enough in his first start — albeit on July 21 — when he put together five harmless innings of one-run ball opposite an intimidating Texas Rangers offense while yielding only four baserunners.  

Overall, Armenteros has logged a solid 15-4 K/BB ratio in his 14 innings at this level and I believe that warrants enough to trust him in this spot, especially if Houston sits a couple of regulars, being a day game after a night-time affair. Play: UNDER 10.5 (-115)

Yesterday’s Result: Mets-Royals Under 9.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 67-59-10, +0.8 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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