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Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Max Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA) vs. Eric Lauer (4-5, 4.18 ERA)

When wanting to build around an under, you always desire at least one pitcher the caliber of Scherzer, who is still one of the unstoppable constants in the game as it concerns starting pitchers.

Despite enduring a relatively rough April that saw the former National League Cy Young Award winner post an uncharacteristic 4.55 ERA and .291 BAA (batting average against), Scherzer rebounded with a nice May that was more in line with his typical work. Although he only won one of his six starts during the month, he still notched a splendid 2.33 ERA, as opponents mustered only a .245 batting average off the right-hander.

In his first start of June last Sunday, Scherzer couldn’t have looked stronger in beating the Reds. He recorded eight outstanding innings, yielding only one run on three hits. Oh, and he also struck out a season-high 15 batters compared to only one walk.

Scherzer looks like he’s in his usual groove and working from pitcher-friendly San Diego could actually help to continue that at least one more start. In four career starts at Petco Park, he logged a 1.96 ERA while compiling 37 K’s in 23 innings.

Generally, it’s always a comfortable feeling being able to lean on Scherzer for under bets but what about Lauer?

Well, if there’s a time to start buying into the second-year southpaw, it might be right now. Lauer has been crafting together his best pitching to date since first getting called up a season ago. He’s allowed just a single earned run in each of his last four starts.  Perhaps above all, we’ll be catching Lauer in his preferred environment. His career ERA at Petco (3.39) is more than two full runs lower in 19 home starts than it is on the road (5.40) in 16 away assignments.

The total only has potential to go down, so be sure to get this wager in right away at its current number. Play: UNDER 7.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Dodgers-Giants Under 7.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 34-31-6, -0.35 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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