MLB Over/Under Bet: Is Montgomery going in right direction?

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Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 3:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Mike Montgomery (1-5, 6.02 ERA) vs. Spencer Turnbull (3-9, 3.72 ERA)

With a series consisting of the two cellar dwellers in the American League Central, it shouldn’t be surprising that one of the pitching matchups contains two starters with a combined 4-14 record.

But that’s where the edge comes in of buying two guys while they are undervalued by the linesmakers in a meeting of two of the lowest-scoring teams in baseball.

Turnbull, despite his poor win-loss mark, has easily been one of Detroit’s lone bright spots this season in establishing himself as a legitimate solid major league starter. He owns a respectable 3.72 ERA, and while he was limited to only two starts in July due to injury, Turnbull proved on Monday in his return that there need not be any concerne regarding his health.

Operating on a pitch count, Turnbull gave up a pair of runs (both in the first inning; and thanks to a miscommunication gaffe in the field) in three fine innings against the Chicago White Sox and impressively recorded seven strikeouts. Fortunately, he won’t be on a pitch count in this one, an assignment that he could end up effectively going deep in given his success opposite the Royals (2.86 ERA in four starts) this season.

The key to this bet, however, could hinge on whether or not the other hurler in this affair, Montgomery, is heading in the right direction.

Since being acquired by the Royals about a month ago, the fifth-year left-hander has made four starts, churning out mixed results in the process. Montgomery’s last outing was a pretty good one, as he allowed only two earned runs in five quality innings to the potent Boston Red Sox lineup and struck out a season-high seven.

For his next turn, he gets a favorable draw, with the Tigers scoring the fewest runs per game (3.70) in the league. They’ve also hit the least amount of home runs (by a wide margin) against lefties, going yard once every 37.24 at-bats with a southpaw doing the bidding. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-115)

Yesterday’s Result: Cubs-Reds Under 9 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 64-57-9, +0.15 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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