MLB Over/Under Bet: Is Strahm on verge of turning it around?

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Tyler Beede (1-3, 6.45 ERA) vs. Matt Strahm (3-6, 4.94 ERA)

The second meeting in this three-game set between National League West division rivals will see two pitchers who are poised for bigger things take the rubber tonight.

One is a southpaw I really liked coming into the season after an impressive first year with San Diego. That would be Strahm, and while the 27-year-old endured a rough June, that isn’t indicative of the potential he’s displayed in the first half of the campaign.

After the first two months, Strahm was the proud owner of a splendid 3.21 ERA through 10 starts. That number unfortunately has since ballooned to an unexpected 4.94 ERA, but don’t expect the former Kansas City Royal to continue heading in that direction.

Though he gave up four runs his last time out, Strahm is coming off his most encouraging outing of the month, logging his most innings (six) and strikeouts (nine) since the end of May. This performance sticks out to me because Strahm said it best himself: “The three starts (before Baltimore) wasn’t me out there. I felt good. I was attacking the zone and eliminated the walks.”

That self-awareness is enough for me to believe Strahm can pick up where he left off and churn out a useful showing this evening. Plus, he’ll have a favorable matchup with one of the league’s worst offenses.

While the Giants fared very well at the plate in their last two ballgames, the fact remains they rank dead-last in baseball against left-handed pitching with a .225 team batting average and .637 OPS. Playing in pitcher-friendly Petco Park won’t help them either.

On the other side, it will be Beede, who will be looking to keep up his solid work as of late. In two of his last three starts, the former first-round draft pick has pitched into the sixth inning while allowing no more than two runs.

This represents progress for Beede as he continues to establish himself as a big-league starter. As long as he keeps trending up, which I think he will, the Vanderbilt product can be helpful for an NL total this high. Play: UNDER 8.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Royals-Blue Jays Over 10.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 49-39-7, +5.4 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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