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Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Jakob Junis (4-6, 5.18 ERA) vs. Trevor Bauer (5-6, 3.69 ERA)

Yup, another Bauer under. Despite his inconsistency in 2019, as long as you’re able to identify a high-percentage spot in which he can succeed, Bauer can come through in a significant way for a total as high as 9.

The eight-year veteran has compiled a notable track record in his assignments when dealing with this division rival. In 14 career games (13 starts) against the Royals, Bauer owns a 3.01 ERA — his lowest ERA of any opponent he’s faced more than 10 times.

Bauer is as competitive and prideful as they get and usually won’t let go of a favorable matchup that he has on tap. This one may be a bit more juicy than usual with Kansas City trotting out a somewhat downgraded lineup from their usual batting order. Perhaps above anything, dead bat Cheslor Cuthbert is hitting third.

Of course, Junis isn’t really close to his counterpart’s upper echelon standing — not yet, at least — but he’s a guy I’ve liked since he first debuted two years ago.

The Royals’ right-hander is better than his 5.18 ERA and he’s been proving that for more than a month now. In all but one of his last six outings, Junis yielded three runs or fewer, and four of those within that stretch registered as quality starts.

Junis doesn’t have the best history opposite Cleveland but with the run he’s on entering today’s assignment, I think he’s capable of at least churning out something decent that would be helpful with where the under’s at. Play: UNDER 9 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Cubs Under 12 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 45-38-6, +2.55 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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