Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
First pitch: 7:07 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Lance Lynn (12-6, 3.93 ERA) vs. Daniel Mengden (5-1, 4.65 ERA)
This is a fine example of capitalizing on a total the linesmakers hung at least a tad bit high. The matchup of probable starters from Oakland tonight — in a pitcher’s park, no less — commands a lower over/under.
But we’ll take it. I’m not sure why Lynn is being underrated by the powers that be other than maybe they see a regression in motion from the veteran. After all, he’s allowed more than three runs in back-to-back starts for the first time this season (nine in total), but beyond than that, Lynn really wasn’t bad in those outings. In fact, he still went at least six innings in both assignments and even recorded a season-high 12 K’s his last time out.
So, I’m willing to bet that Lynn is actually still in solid shape and there’s an opportunity to do so while the ninth-year right-hander is working in a place of preference — anywhere but Arlington.
He’s been notably better outside of Texas, churning out a 3.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .239 batting average against and logging 11.05 K/9 in his 10 road starts. At home, Lynn may be 8-1 but he’s posted a 4.20 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .273 BAA while etching 9.30 K/9 in front of Rangers faithful.
Going opposite Lynn is a less-established righty but someone who also comes with a high ceiling attached. That would be Mengden, who has exhibited flashes of being a perennial upper-rotation pitcher in his time in the big leagues but injuries have really prevented the 26-year-old from breaking out.
Mengden is healthy right now, though, and, when in the right spot, he’s a pitcher that can be trusted. While the Rangers boast a reputation for being explosive at the plate, that is not really the case when they are away from the hitting-welcoming Globe Life Park in Arlington. Texas is actually 19th in team OPS (.738) on the road, and don’t forget they’re missing probably their most dangerous hitter — and a guy who was flirting with American League MVP contention — Joey Gallo.
Under backers figure to also benefit from this being a home date for Mengden. While settling in during the last two years, the former fourth-round draft pick has pitched considerably superior at the Oakland Coliseum. During that span, he’s amassed a 3.73 ERA in 18 games (14 starts) at home. Play: UNDER 9 (-120)
Yesterday’s Result: Twins-White Sox Under 8.5 (loss)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 58-48-9, +4.4 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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