Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
First pitch: 1:05 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Walker Buehler (6-1, 3.69 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (3-5, 4.05 ERA)
Wow, the linesmakers are certainly playing with fire when it comes to this over/under, laying that extra hook for this potential pitcher’s duel — from a distinct pitcher’s park, no less.
And why is that the case? Even with today’s increased offense (specifically homers), Bumgarner usually commands a total of no more than 7 when working from home (and almost always such a low line in years’ past), even against mediocre pitchers.
In this assignment, he’s facing one of baseball’s most dangerous offenses, but one that is considerably less impactful opposite left-handed pitching. Making the total tabbed for this game even more curious, Bumgarner is going up against one of the best young pitchers in the league in Buehler.
Both guys have been trending up since inconsistent patches early in the campaign. Mad Bum comes into this series finale having notched three consecutive quality starts. Going back further, he’s got six under his belt in his last seven turns.
Buehler, meanwhile, has clocked in with five quality starts in the last six outings. He’s coming off his most dominant performance of the year — in my under on Monday — when he registered eight innings of one-run ball, yielding just three baserunners and striking out a season-high 11.
The track records each starter has with their opponent on tap also seems to favor a lower-scoring outcome. Mad Bum, obviously, has faced the Dodgers plenty of times in his likely-Hall-of-Fame-bound career, logging a real nice 2.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 34 career games (33 starts). He’s also limited LA to a harmless .227/.274/.357 slash line.
Buehler has only made two starts opposite his club’s longtime eternal rival but fared just fine, holding San Francisco to three runs or fewer in both efforts while putting up a 12-2 K/BB ratio in 10.1 innings.
It’s a favorable matchup no matter what considering the sad state of the Giants’ hitting. San Francisco is scoring the second-fewest runs per game in the National League (3.8) — and they’re also baseball’s lowest-scoring team at home with just three runs per contest at Oracle Park. They’ve hit the fewest homers (19) at home, too.
Like yesterday, this is an over/under that only has potential to go down, so get your bet in as soon as you can. Play: UNDER 7.5 (-115)
Yesterday’s Result: Nationals-Padres Under 7.5 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 35-31-6, +0.65 unit
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit