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Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Robbie Ray (12-7, 3.97 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (2-10, 4.72 ERA)

The stat line he carries may not be pretty but I assure you Mahle is far better than the 2-10 record and 4.72 ERA to his name.

He showed exactly that in his last start — his first in the majors since mid-July — when he contained a hot St. Louis Cardinals offense to just two runs (one earned) in six-plus innings, yielding only two baserunners and striking out five.

Mahle missed extended time with a strained hamstring before coming back about a month later — in the minors. Nonetheless, the former seventh-round draft pick was sharp during his brief stay at Triple-A Louisville, amassing 13 K’s in nine total innings.

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So, with this recent string of work, Mahle’s confidence has to be restored after a tough stretch that preceded his trip to the injured list. In his first full season at this level a year ago, Mahle proved he can hang and was mostly enjoying success before injuries led to a disappointing abbreviated second half.

As long as Mahle is healthy, which appears to be the case, we can get a useful output from the right-hander for a high under.

We hope good health for the counterpart here as well, Ray, who also returned from a recent — albeit brief — stint on the IL.

Ray has made two starts since coming back, allowing four runs across 10 combined innings. Fortunately, the strikeouts were still there, as he picked up 12 punch-outs in the pair of assignments, illustrating he’s indeed in usual form.

If that’s the case, it would be wonderful if Ray were to go along with his usual home-and-road tendencies. The 27-year-old’s career splits are much more favorable toward his road performance, as Ray has actually registered a better ERA away from Chase Field than at home in each of his five years with Arizona. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-115)

Yesterday’s Result: Nationals-Braves Under 9 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 77-69-10, -0.75 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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