Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs
First pitch: 5:05 p.m. PT
TV: MLB Network
Probable pitchers: German Marquez (6-2, 3.48 ERA) vs. Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.02 ERA)
As always, when dealing with a game at Wrigley Field, it’s basically mandatory to find out the severity of those notorious winds within the Friendly Confines and what direction they’ll be blowing in.
That’s a deciding reason why this matchup between Marquez and Darvish — two starters who aren’t really considered marquee names (but maybe should be) — is as low as 7.5. There are 11 mph winds expected tonight on the North Side and they’ll be blowing in.
In any event, I’m going with the under here. Marquez has actually been steadily solid all season long, playing a useful role in Colorado’s climb out of its early-season rut. He’s registered at least five innings in all 13 of his starts, and to help ensure another quality, deep outing tonight, the 24-year-old will be working from an office of preference — outside of Coors Field.
In each of Marquez’s full three seasons in the big leagues (including this one), the right-hander has fared significantly better away from Colorado. He sports a respectable career 3.45 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the road, easily besting the 4.59 ERA and 1.39 WHIP he’s posted at home.
Additionally, road opponents have logged a .236/.295/.389 slash line off Marquez, which is far inferior to the .280/.332/.461 line they’ve notched against him at Coors.
Then there’s Darvish, who is finally starting to settle in as a Cub based upon the consistency he’s displayed throughout the last handful of weeks. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, and not only that, he’s going deeper into games again, too, having notched at least six frames in his last three assignments.
All of that means not only does Darvish appear to be fully past his health issues, but that he’s also in a groove. When that’s the case, I look forward to leaning on the former Texas Ranger ace, seeing as how he can still be as dominant as anyone when in regular form. Play: UNDER 7.5 (-125)
Yesterday’s Result: Rays-Tigers Under 8.5 (loss)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 33-29-6, +0.9 unit
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit