Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
First pitch: 5:10 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Tommy Milone (1-1, 3.10 ERA) vs. Jose Berrios (8-2, 3.14 ERA)
Whenever approaching a game involving Berrios at Target Field, you must first and foremost consider his home-and-road splits, which are among the most extreme in the game.
Luckily, as it pertains the under here, Berrios has generally been far better in Minnesota than on the road since first arriving in the big leagues three years ago. In 39 career starts (and one relief appearance) at home, Berrios is a pristine 23-11 to go with a 3.48 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.3 K/9.
Additionally, opponents have mustered only a .232/.294/.344 slash line when traveling to face the right-hander. Compare all that to his 14-17 record, 4.99 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and .250/.330/.448 in his road assignments and it’s clear Berrios is one to trust in front of the hometown faithful.
Furthermore, and just as important as anything considering the homer-happy offense he’ll be opposing, Berrios keeps the ball in the yard when working at home. In 237.2 career innings on a Minnesota mound, he’s allowed only 18 home runs. By comparison, in 241.2 innings away from Target Field, he’s surrendered 45 taters.
It’s also worth noting that Berrios has always typically been superior prior to the All-Star break (3.82 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) than after (4.93 ERA, 1.48 WHIP).
So, we should be good concerning Berrios but what about Milone against his old team? While the ninth-year journeyman hasn’t really maintained a notable level of consistency for under wagers in years, he has seemed to rediscover his old form from his early A’s days.
In his first four games as a Mariner, Milone has registered a cool 3.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, holding opponents to a desirable .228 batting average. He’s been consistent, too, yielding two earned runs or fewer in each of his outings.
The Twins are real tough on southpaws but I think Milone can at least come through with a satisfactory performance, which is all that may be needed given where the line sits. Just be sure to bet this without the listed pitchers required, being that Seattle may go with an opener to begin the game. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-120)
Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Giants Under 8 (loss)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 37-32-6, +1.5 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit