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Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. 

Probable pitchers: Trevor Bauer (10-12, 4.60 ERA) vs. Justus Sheffield (0-1, 5.51 ERA)

This bet, to me at least, is all about Bauer simply ending his season in the fashion we’re used to seeing from the veteran.

Bauer is just way more talented than what he’s shown since he was (surprisingly) dealt to Cincinnati, where he’s been tagged for a disastrous 8.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in seven starts with the team. He was 9-8 with a respectable 3.79 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts with the Cleveland Indians prior to the trade and I think we can get a performance closer to that output.

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Luckily, Bauer is very prideful in his craft and absolutely isn’t one to roll over; thus, we know he’ll be doing everything to cap off the campaign on a positive note (and not to leave a bad impression on his teammates). A date with one of the American League’s worst offenses gives him a favorable matchup to work with and one he can definitely take advantage of.

Then we have a youngster in Sheffield going for the Mariners and making his fourth career start. He’s produced mixed results thus far but fortunately, he’s on the upswing entering this assignment after assembling five shutout innings at Wrigley Field opposite a tough Chicago Cubs lineup. He also struck out a career-high seven while walking only two.

Perhaps this is a sign of what the left-hander can do right now if he’s not getting unlucky. Through his 16.1 innings in the big leagues this year, Sheffield has had to deal with a cruel .362 batting average on balls put in play against him.

Having a counterpart like Bauer — and in a pitcher’s park, no less — also seems to give the 23-year-old some room for error. With Bauer always having the ceiling of a dominant performance every fifth day when he’s locked in, we can get by with just a serviceable showing from Sheffield. Play: UNDER 9 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: Yankees-Red Sox Under 9.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 78-72-10, -3.25 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit (Note: Mathematical error of 0.15 units from other day added on)

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