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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Michael Pineda (10-5, 4.16 ERA) vs. Spencer Turnbull (3-13, 4.18 ERA)

Riding a hot hand can be fruitful if approached right and that’s what we’ll be trying to do again in the case if Pineda after winning his latest under this past Tuesday.

One of my top sleepers entering the campaign, Pineda has continued to provide consistency since the season turned to the second half. In his seven post-All-Star break outings, Pineda is 4-1 with a nice 3.27 ERA while pitching the Twins into the sixth inning or deeper each time out. Additionally, he allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of them.

Of course, getting to face baseball’s lowest-scoring offense (3.65 runs per game) only brightens the right-hander’s outlook today. Pineda has actually allowed three runs in each of his three assignments opposing the Tigers, but those all came in the first half when Detroit also sported a considerably different starting lineup.

The difficult part of nabbing a winning under here has more to do with the counterpart, Turnbull, who will be tasked with taking on the offense that just set the major league record for most home runs in a season by one team (even doing it before September!).

But the 26-year-old has shown in his first full big-league season that he can battle it out with anyone. Don’t be fooled by his 3-13 record; Turnbull has legitimately been one of the club’s lone silver linings in a lost year. Notably, in 19 of his 24 starts, he’s yielded three earned runs or fewer, and in a season where seemingly everyone is hitting the long ball, Turnbull has given up just 13 homers in 120.2 total innings.

True, only one of his starts has come against Minnesota’s big boppers but he fared well in the outing, etching 5.2 solid innings of two-run ball. Something close to that would be useful for an over/under this high.

It’s still possible the total ticks up another half-run, so wait like I am up until first pitch before making your wager. Play: UNDER 9.5

Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Braves Under 9.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 74-67-10, -1.45 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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