Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks
First pitch: 6:40 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Lance Lynn (0-1, 6.39 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (0-1, 4.35 ERA)
OK, a bit of a combustible bet here given the pair of lineups involved. Nonetheless, there may be enough quality pitching to dictate an under in this final contest of a mini two-game set between the Rangers and Diamondbacks.
Depending on Ray for an under is usually a good thing. When he’s on his game, the 27-year-old southpaw can be one of the more dominant pitchers out there, and his chances of being in that form only increase when squaring off with a lineup that strikes out often.
Well, Texas certainly fits that bill after sitting down via the K more than any other team in the American League a year ago. With virtually the same lineup, that’s not going to change. The slugger who scares me most in the Rangers batting order, Joey Gallo, is less productive against southpaws, literally striking out almost every other at-bat with a lefty pitching.
That plays into the hands of Ray, who is off to a fine start in 2019. His strikeout rate is down a bit, but you know that will return closer to its norm. In his start opposite Texas last season, Ray picked up six strikeouts.
The more challenging part of this wager involves Lynn, who might be past his best days. But the 31-year-old can still come in handy for an under. He’s coming off a nice outing (7 IP, 5 H, BB, 2 ER) vs. a tough Angels squad, and I think he can continue in that direction en route to serving as a veteran leader for this pitching staff in his first year with the Rangers.
For this bet, there’s no risk in waiting to see if the line goes back to 8.5, since it’s definitely not dropping to 7.5, so that’s what I’ll be doing up to first pitch. Even if it doesn’t move, this is still my wager for today. Play: WIN UNDER 8/8.5
Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Rockies Under 10.5 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 6-7, -2 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
2019 MLB (1-0-0) Overall Record: 6-7-1
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