MLB Over/Under Bet: Skaggs, Stroman battle in The North

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Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 4:07 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Tyler Skaggs (5-6, 5.00 ERA) vs. Marcus Stroman (4-8, 3.18 ERA)

Two quality starters trending up and going at it with a relatively high over/under attached is usually something solid to dig into. This particular matchup qualifies as such despite last night’s high-scoring series opener.

Let’s start with what has been the more inconsistent hurlers of the two, Skaggs. The 27-year-old left-handed currently sits with a 5.00 ERA, but it’s been undeserved, as evident in the 4.03 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) he’s registered. Like last year, Skaggs has been dealing with bad luck as well. He’s had to surmount a .320 batting average on balls put in play against him, which is only slightly less than what it was a season ago (.328).

Fortunately, Skaggs has a matchup to improve upon his overall numbers. The Blue Jays lineup can be dangerous at home but with a southpaw on the hill, their .684 team OPS is third-lowest in the American League. Skaggs is capable of handling this offense.

Meanwhile, Stroman has been displaying a tendency that he can handle any opposing batting order. Though he sports a 4-8 record, the former first-round draft pick owns the league’s ninth-best ERA (3.18). That’s definitely notable when pitching in the AL East.

Stroman has been pretty consistent, too, allowing no more than three earned runs in all but three of his 15 starts. He’ll enter this assignment in a groove, having pitched Toronto in the sixth while allowing more than three runs only once in that stretch.

Under backers should also appreciate that Stroman will be working from home in this one. For his career, the right-hander’s career ERA at Rogers Centre (3.42) is nearly a full run lower than it is on the road (4.34).

The total for this affair only has potential to go down to 9, so be sure to get this bet in as soon as you can. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: Orioles-Athletics Under 9 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 39-36-6, -1.2 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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