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Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 10:20 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Jacob Waguespack (4-2, 3.93 ERA) vs. Mike Soroka (10-3, 2.44 ERA)

Soroka probably won’t end up winning this year’s National League Rookie of the Year award — an honor likely to go to the New York Mets’ Pete Alonso — but he’s at least put himself in the conversation thanks to a strong first full campaign that may have him in line to finish as the runner-up.

The 22-year-old enters his 25th start of the season at 10-3 with a pristine 2.44 ERA and he’s exhibited no signs of slowing down. In fact, his ERA in the second half (2.47) is nearly as low as it was prior to the All-Star break (2.42).

In his most recent assignment, Soroka tamed these same Blue Jays to the tune of yet another quality start, which was his sixth straight such effort. That indicates Soroka is in a nice rhythm right now.

Although facing the same offense twice in a row can bring on an extra variable, this time around for the right-hander might actually be less challenging. For one, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t in the starting lineup today, and as I’ve covered before, Toronto is far less dangerous away from Rogers Centre, ranking in the bottom-third of baseball in team OPS (.731) on the road.

The other starter in this series opener, Waguespack, must also contend with the same obstacle of dealing with the same offense in back-to-back starts. However, he also didn’t do very well, lasting a season-low three innings, but poor defense contributed to that result as well.

Waguespack is someone that caught my eye right away and he’s been one of Toronto’s more impressive youngsters. Thus, I believe he can get back on track. Prior to his last outing, Waguespack was on a good run, and maybe working in a National League park today opposite a Braves lineup missing some regulars will get him going in the right direction again. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: Twins-Tigers Under 9.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 74-68-10, -2.55 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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