MLB Over/Under Bet: Tailing deGrom’s historic daytime work

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Jacob deGrom (4-7, 3.27 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (4-8, 3.82 ERA)

So much to unpack here for today’s over/under, so let’s just get right to it.

The first thing that should stand out is that this is a daytime assignment for deGrom in his first start out of the All-Star break. That’s very significant because the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner literally owns the best career ERA (1.91) in Major League history of all qualified starters.

deGrom has surprisingly only had a pair of outings with the sun out this season, and of course, shined in both. Collectively, he yielded just two runs in 12 innings while registering a superb 19-1 K/BB ratio.

Not only will we have the benefit of deGrom working during the day but the opponent he has on tap will be inviting as well. Miami is scoring the fewest runs per game (3.58) in all of baseball, and their lackluster .657 team OPS is last as well.

A fellow All-Star, Alcantara — whom I am very fond of, as you know — gets the ball for the Marlins in this series finale, taking on a very familiar foe. This will be his 24th career start and sixth time facing the Mets, meaning once in every four of his turns in the rotation, he’s dealt with New York as the opponent.

Fortunately, that’s actually another reason to have action on the under, as Alcantara has fared very well when squaring off with the Amazin’s. In those five meetings, he crafted together a desirable 2.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while limiting New York to a minuscule .168/.260/.292 slash line.

But above all concerning the Marlin right-hander is that, like his counterpart, he really excels in the afternoon. In fact, he’s notched a 1.87 ERA in his eight career daytime starts — and the under went 7-1.

A lot to like here, and hopefully poor bullpen work doesn’t foil a low-scoring pace. Make sure you wait first before placing this bet like I am, as the juice indicates it’s possible the total might tick up a half-run. Follow me on Twitter to see when I make my official wager. Play: UNDER 7

Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Brewers Under 9 (“Push”)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 52-43-8, +3.85 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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