MLB Over/Under Bet: Tapping into Greinke’s history vs. Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 7:05 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.08 ERA) vs. Drew Pomeranz (2-8, 6.79 ERA)

In effort of aiming to extend my five-game winning streak, I am summoning a recipe that can usually call for a low-scoring contest whenever the Giants are playing at their pitcher-friendly home ballpark.

As it is, San Francisco features one of the worst offenses in baseball. Out of all Major League clubs, the Giants have scored the third-fewest runs per game (3.86) and also own the lowest team batting average (.224) and second-lowest OPS (.663) as well.

Those numbers — as is usually the case — are all worse at Oracle Park, where they put up just 3.17 runs per game to go along with a .223 batting average and .639 OPS as a ballclub.

So, mix that into a matchup against a pitcher, let alone one the caliber of Greinke, who traditionally succeeds when facing the Giants, and the outcome on that side of the equation should be academic.

For his career, Greinke is 12-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 19 career starts opposite this division rival. He’s even better than that when working in San Francisco, where he’s a perfect 5-0 alongside a shiny 1.37 ERA in seven assignments.

Notably, the 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner has held Giants sluggers Buster Posey and Brandon Belt to a lifetime .262 average (22-for-84) with 21 K’s. In addition, fellow key position players Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Joe Panik and Pablo Sandoval have combined to hit .197 (24-for-122) off the right-hander.

While Pomeranz does not sport the same type of pleasant track record against tonight’s opponent, he still appears to be someone that can be trusted to keep going back in the right direction.  In his last outing on Monday — an under I had and won to improve to 4-0 on Pomeranz games this year — the former first-round draft pick was outstanding, yielding two runs and matching a career high with 11 strikeouts in five sharp innings.

That’s it, just anticipate Pomeranz continues his resurgence, and in a preferred place of comfort. He’s made seven starts both at home and on the road and his ERA at Oracle Park (4.11) is much more respectable than it is away from the Bay Area (9.76).

Unfortunately, I decided on this game right after the total had already went down. Wait like I am up until first pitch to see if it goes to 7.5 again, but even if it doesn’t, this is still my bet from the Saturday slate. Follow me on Twitter to see official wager. Play: UNDER 7/7.5

Yesterday’s Result: Cardinals-Padres Under 9 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 48-38-6, +5.55 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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