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Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 11:15 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Trevor Bauer (9-7, 3.49 ERA) vs. Danny Duffy (4-5, 4.32 ERA)

As the trade deadline nears, potential midseason pickups get ready to make maybe their final start with their current club. For Duffy, that could mean the end of his nine-year tenure with the Royals (yes, it’s been that long), the organization with whom he’s spent his entire career with.

That being said, emotions could be running high for the underrated southpaw, but that’s something that can boost Duffy considering the rhythm he’s in right now. With this perhaps serving as his final assignment in Kansas City, you know he’ll want to walk off with another such outing.

In fact, Duffy is coming off his best start of the campaign when he accumulated a season-high 11 strikeouts in six terrific innings of one-run ball — and against a dangerous offense (Atlanta Braves).

He’ll be facing a familiar foe this afternoon, one that ranks in the bottom-third of Major League Baseball in team batting average (.246) and OPS (.743) opposite left-handed pitching. In his lone start this year against the Indians a few weeks ago, Duffy went deep into the seventh inning and held the Tribe to only a pair of runs.

Of course, the presence of Bauer typically brings comfort to any under, and that’s definitely true when the supremely-talented right-hander is in a groove.

Luckily, that appears to be the case, with Bauer currently honing a streak of four consecutive quality starts. As great as he was in April, even that month didn’t consist of such a run for Bauer, perhaps a sign that he is hitting his stride again. In his last four starts, he’s compiled a 2.30 ERA and 39 K’s in 27.1 innings pitched.

Bauer’s solid history in his dates with the Royals can also come into play. Of all the rivals in his division, it is Kansas City whom Bauer has recorded his lowest career ERA (.318) against, and he’s been real stingy when going to work in their ballpark. Bauer has made eight career starts (and one relief appearance) at Kauffman Stadium, going 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA.

With this bet, wait up until first pitch like I am to see if the total goes up a half-run. The juice indicates it’s a possibility, and with the over/under likely not going down, might as well wait. Play: UNDER 9

Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Cardinals Under 8.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 59-49-9, +4.2 units

*Each bet graded as of it were to win 1 unit

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