Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Over/Under: 9
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Marcus Stroman (3-8, 3.31 ERA) vs. Gabriel Ynoa (0-2, 4.96 ERA)
All of Toronto is sure to be captivated this evening by the Raptors’ quest for the first NBA championship in franchise history. But its baseball team also has a game you can bet on, and in my opinion, it is one to indeed partake in with some action.
The Blue Jays are turning to the best pitcher on the staff, Stroman, one night after the club was able to snap a five-game skid. The Long Island native is coming off a rough showing of his own, but that actually puts Stroman in a spot where you’d like to lean on him.
In his last start, Stroman was tagged for six runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks, marking the 25th time in his career he’s allowed five or more earned runs in an assignment. Well, he’s developed a tendency to rebound nicely, as Stroman owns a commendable 3.17 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in the previous 24 such ensuing outings.
Under backers should also appreciate that the former first-round draft pick has been solid in his history against Baltimore, notching a 3.52 ERA and 57-15 K/BB ratio in 12 career games (11 starts) opposite the O’s. That includes one start this year in which held them to two runs in five-plus innings.
Ynoa may not be nearly as polished as his counterpart in this one but he’s shown some encouraging signs in his three starts this year. In fact, he allowed three runs or fewer in all of them and is coming off his third career quality start.
The 26-year-old appears to be trending up and gets a matchup tonight that can help him continue his run of success. The Blue Jays have scored the second-fewest runs in the league and they also own the lowest team OPS on the road (.682) as well.
For this bet, wait up until first pitch to see if the total goes to 9.5. Even if it doesn’t, I’m still on this under. Play: UNDER 9
Yesterday’s Result: Mariners-Twins Under 9.5 (“loss”)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 37-33-6, +0.3 unit
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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