MLB Over/Under Bet: Tracking Glasnow’s trajectory

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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 4:07 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.92 ERA) vs. T.J. Zeuch (1-1, 4.58 ERA)

The only issue right now betting on a Glasnow game is trying to figure out how much run the former Pittsburgh Pirate will be allowed by his manager.

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Being that the Rays’ postseason fate comes down to this final weekend, it’s safe to assume that Glasnow will be permitted to go deep into the game, or at least more than the maximum three innings he’s logged in his last two starts.

Despite missing four months due to a forearm strain — which interrupted a legitimate breakout by the 26-year-old right-hander in which he had a 1.86 ERA through his first eight starts — Glasnow has seemingly come back stronger than before.

There’s a case to be made for that, with Glasnow throwing even harder than before. The fact he hit 99 mph with his four-seam fastball 13 times for the year prior to his injury, yet has already done so 16 times across his three assignments since, clearly illustrates that.

Glasnow has also looked very sharp since coming back. Though he’s only totaled eight innings (and his pitch count should be up tonight, remember), Glasnow has struck out 17 of 32 batters faced while allowing two runs (on a homer in his return start) on five hits — or a .172 batting average against.

So long as Glasnow is provided a higher pitch count, which should be the case given the club’s situation, he can play a significantly decisive role in this bet.

Zeuch has been no slouch either despite what his 4.58 ERA might say. This will be the rookie southpaw’s fifth appearance (third start), and he’s actually fared serviceably, going at least four innings each time out and yielding no more than three runs and just one homer in all.

In other words, he’s been pretty steady and that’s exactly what you want from the “other” starter here for an under this high. Plus, this isn’t a bad matchup for Zeuch. He’s been finding his form in his most recent outings, accumulating 11 strikeouts in his last two games compared to only five in the first two. 

The Rays have displayed a tendency since last year to strike out more frequently opposite left-handers, and that’s been the case once again this season, specifically once every 3.5 times. In fact, no team in the American League has struck out more against lefties than Tampa. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Dodgers-Padres Under 8.5 (WIN)

2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 88-77-12, +1.15 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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