Detroit Tigers at New York Mets
Over/Under: 8
First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Spencer Turnbull (2-3, 2.68 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (3-3, 4.74 ERA)
The first two meetings in this three-game set may have reached or exceeded nine runs total but I don’t envision that result taking place in the series finale. Not with this underrated pitching matchup — which especially sticks out with that nice, even number of 8 attached to it in what is more of a National League pitcher’s park.
By this point, Turnbull should at least have the attention of most based on the stellar beginning he’s had in his first full campaign in the Majors. He enters this assignment at only 2-3 but he’s etched an impressive 2.68 ERA, all while averaging a strikeout per inning.
In addition to that, he’s proven to be a real road warrior thus far, allowing three runs or fewer in all four of his starts away from Comerica Park. There’s a solid chance he can extend that streak considering his opponent is the Mets, a club that’s been wildly inconsistent lately and dealing with significant injuries to the starting lineup.
Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano are currently on the disabled… err, injured list, and since this is a day-game-after-a-night-game scenario, there will be some regulars not starting. One huge name that’s absent is rookie Pete Alonso, New York’s biggest power threat. His absence is very welcomed for this wager.
Same thing for the Tigers, though that is not as impactful given the state of their starting batting order. On the season, they’ve scored the second-fewest runs per game (3.42) in all of baseball and registered the fourth-lowest team OPS (.661) as well. A lot of that has to do with how Detroit has cranked out only 40 home runs this year, ranking them second from the bottom.
When also factoring in the Tigers’ notable struggles at the plate during the last two weeks, all of it adds up to a very positive outlook for Wheeler. When he’s on his game, the 28-year-old can be one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, as he was often showing last year.
This is a great spot for him to keep going in that direction, coming into this assignment with three quality starts in his last four tries. Play: UNDER 8 (-115)
Yesterday’s Result: Orioles-Rockies Under 12 (loss)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 30-25-3, +2.15 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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