Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
First pitch: 11:10 a.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Tyson Ross (1-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. Michael Pineda (1-0, 2.00 ERA)
If this exact matchup in a pitching-friendly ballpark like Target Field was taking place five years ago, the over/under would undoubtedly be at least a half-run lower, if not more.
Here’s the thing, though. Both Ross and Pineda — who are now fully recovered from significant injuries that plagued them in recent years — are starting to resemble their old selves, making this bet stand out. They’re each definitely capable of continue their early-season success.
Pineda, as I wrote going into his last start, was one of my top three sleepers coming into the campaign and he’s been terrific thus far in his first major league action since July of 2017.
That was further cemented when he fared well in a fairly tough assignment in Philadelphia last Saturday and got the victory. As important as anything, the strikeouts have been there, too. Today, he draws an enticing matchup against a Tigers lineup that is last in the American League with 2.54 runs scored per game.
For Detroit, they have Ross, a forgotten former All-Star who has shown in these first few weeks he still belongs in the majors. Based on the amount of contact he’s drawing, I like Ross to continue at least being serviceable. He’s garnering high percentages for ground balls (58.1 percent) and soft contact (22.6 percent) that are reminiscent of his Padres glory days, and it’s also encouraging that he’s registering a career-low fly ball percentage (12.9 percent) as well.
Aiding these two pitchers will be cold temperatures throughout the ballgame, as it’s supposed to feel like it’s in the low-30’s in Minnesota this afternoon. Play: WIN UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Yesterday’s Result: Rays-Blue Jays Under 8.5 (loss)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 7-9, -3.25 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
2019 MLB (1-0-0) Overall Record: 7-9-1