Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Jacob Waguespack (1-1, 5.63 ERA) vs. Jakob Junis (6-9, 5.03 ERA)
Color me one relatively impressed with Waguespack so far, albeit in a small sample size. This will be the rookie’s fourth career big-league start (not to mention he’s made two relief appearances) and while his 5.63 ERA doesn’t really show it, Waguespack has definitely shown some potential.
In four of his five appearances, all of which spanning at least four innings, Waguespack has yielded three earned runs or fewer, and the one time he gave up more was on the back end of his consecutive outings opposite the hard-hitting Boston Red Sox.
Sure, he’ll experience growing pains at times as his freshman campaign winds down but this looks like a spot he can be leaned upon. At least for a total as high as 10, Waguespack’s steady work thus far can come in handy for such an under bet.
Junis is a guy I’ve liked since he first debuted two years ago. Like his counterpart today, the overall numbers don’t really tell the full story, as Junis has been better than his 5.03 ERA. His 4.60 xFIP indicates that.
The Kansas City right-hander was working on a nice stretch before his last turn in the rotation. Prior to that, he had rung up three straight quality starts, a span that also saw him allow only three runs combined. In his last assignment, he had to face the Cleveland Indians — a team he has historically struggled against — in a second consecutive start, so his struggles there were understandable and he still hung in there for six innings.
Toronto trots out an offense that can be explosive at times but luckily on this day, marvelous rookie slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out of the starting lineup. As it is, the Blue Jays are 20th in baseball in team batting average (.246) and home runs (68) on the road, a tendency that can aid Junis in providing his typically fine work when he’s in rhythm like I believe he is right now. Play: UNDER 10 (-105)
Yesterday’s Result: Mets-White Sox Under 9 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 60-51-9, +3 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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