MLB Over/Under Bet: What to be had in Urena vs. Norris

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Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Jose Urena (1-6, 4.44 ERA) vs. Daniel Norris (2-2, 4.50 ERA)

When you’re able to secure an under bet of 9 or higher involving the Marlins’ dead-bat offense, it’s usually a good proposition, even before you start breaking the game down. An at-least-satisfactory pitching matchup attached to it only enhances the chances for victory.

Much has been made of Miami’s historically slow start at the plate, as they easily rank last in baseball with just 123 runs scored thus far — or 2.73 runs per game. That would rank them amongst the worst of all-time if the club finished around there. The Marlins are also tied for 27th in team batting average (.220) and sit dead last in home runs (29), team on-base percentage (.281) and slugging percentage (.316).

It doesn’t matter if it’s been a right-hander or a left-hander; the Fish have struggled against all comers. With a lefty on the hill, their team OPS (.604) is at the bottom of all of baseball in that department, and that’s good news for tonight’s opposing hurler Norris.

Since being inserted into the rotation, the 26-year-old southpaw has churned out mostly solid work, pitching the Tigers into the sixth inning or deeper in all six of his starts. In four of those, Norris allowed three runs or fewer and looks like he’s finally establishing himself as a fine mid-rotation pitcher.

The other starter in this affair, Urena, has also been pretty good but has actually provided his best pitching as of late. In his last two assignments, the right-hander yielded only a single earned run in both, and going beyond that, he’s logged at least six innings in each of his last six starts, while limiting the opponent to two runs or fewer in five of those.

Urena looks like he’s hitting his stride right now while Norris is always capable of a useful performance for an under opposite the right opponent. As a result, I’m on this under as my action for the evening. Play: UNDER 9 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Athletics-Indians Under 8.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 28-24-2, +1.3 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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