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Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Jon Gray (10-7, 4.03 ERA) vs. Eric Lauer (6-8, 4.43 ERA)

Throughout his mercurial five-year career in the big leagues, Gray has typically underwhelmed when squaring off with an opponent within his division. But the one exception has been the Padres, whom Gray has looked magnificent against.

In 18 lifetime meetings (and one relief appearance) opposite San Diego, the former No. 3 overall draft pick is 10-3 to go with a splendid 2.87 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s also racked up a whopping 135 strikeouts compared to only 22 walks across 109.2 innings.

Gray is having one of his finest seasons to date, and in a spot to succeed this evening against a familiar foe, I think he can serve one of his usual solid performances.

Lauer, on the other hand, has not fared well when dealing with this National League West rival. In fact, he came away from his four career outings against Colorado with an ugly 12.51 ERA and 2.49 WHIP (!) as the result.

The fellow former first-round draft selection struggled in three of those assignments — but those all came at hitter-friendly Coors Field. His other date involving the Rockies was actually a dandy, as Lauer recorded five brilliant no-hit innings and yielded just an unearned run.

A lot of that probably had to do with the fact that it emanated from Petco Park, which is thankfully the site of tonight’s series opener. As I’ve covered before, Lauer has been significantly better at home (3.33 ERA) than on the road (5.47 ERA) in his still-young career, a trend that has leaked easily into his sophomore campaign. This season, Lauer’s ERA in San Diego is 2.60, almost an incredible four runs lower than it is away from Petco (6.20).

Make sure you get this under bet in right away at 8.5, with the total already beginning to drop. Play: UNDER 8.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Tigers Under 9.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 63-56-9, +0.35 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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