MLB Over/Under Bet: Which Version of Jon Gray Will Show Up?

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Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. Pacific

Probable pitchers: Jon Gray (12-9, 5.12 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (2-3, 3.44 ERA)

Lost in the Rockies’ playoff run a year ago was the decline of former No. 3 overall draft pick Jon Gray. Not only did he endure a rough showing and even a brief minor league demotion in 2018, Gray was also left off the postseason roster entirely.

So, will that version of the hard-throwing right-hander continue on? Or will Gray return to 2017 form when he was 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA? I think it’s going to be the latter.

First off, Gray was actually better than the 5.12 ERA he finished with, as evident in his 4.08 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Gray was also easily among the unluckiest pitchers, being saddled with just an unfair .322 batting average on balls put in play. That number was actually third-highest in baseball among starters.

Gray is still throwing 95-plus mph heat while recording healthy strikeout totals (career 9.53 K/9). Additionally, he managed to set a career-best by garnering swings and misses on pitches inside the zone 12.2 percent of the time last year, according to Fangraphs. Combined with his specialized offseason work, there are plenty of signs pointing to a rebound campaign.

On the other side, it will be Sandy Alcantara getting his first full season underway. If it’s anything like his first action as a starter last year, the Marlins have found themselves a gem.

Though it was only six outings, Alcantara definitely showed shades of being an upper-rotation starter, as opponents hit only .214 off the former Cardinals farmhand. He also struck out nearly a batter per inning.

He struggled with command (23 BBs in 34 IP) but this could be the right matchup for Alcantara to help subdue that, with Colorado drawing the fifth-fewest walks in the NL last year. One thing is for certain: Alcantara is close to breaking out. WIN     UNDER 7.5 (-105)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under betting record: 0-3, -3.35 units

Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Phillies Under 9 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Results
2019 MLB (1-0-0) Overall Record: 1-3-0

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