Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
First pitch: 12:40 p.m. PT
TV: MLB Network
Probable pitchers: Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.12 ERA) vs. Dinelson Lamet (2-4, 3.95 ERA)
Again, like last night, we have another relatively unusual over/under of 8 at Petco Park for a solid pitching matchup. And thus, we’ll try to capitalize on that for a second day in a row — this time in a getaway day game following a night affair, which should bring about some backups into the starting batting orders.
That can be especially decisive for San Diego with dead bats like Josh Naylor and Greg Garcia getting playing time. Then again, the Padres could trot out their best lineup and it still may not make a difference considering the opposing hurler slated to take the mound tonight.
Darvish — just as I maintained throughout the first half would eventually happen — has been hot for months now. Despite being sidelined for a brief period recently (without going on the injured list) due to a forearm issue, the former Texas Ranger ace returned seamlessly last Saturday, firing five shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Milwaukee Brewers (in a crucial game) to go with seven strikeouts compared to only one walk. He’ll have a higher pitch count here, too.
Since the All-Star break, Darvish has made 10 starts, en route to producing a shiny 2.68 ERA and 0.80 WHIP while allowing one run or less in seven of those outings. Additionally, opponents are hitting only .199 off the 33-year-old during the season’s second half and he’s netted an unreal 79-4 (!!) K/BB ratio in 60.1 frames.
I can’t stress it enough: Darvish is still a top-tier pitcher and when he’s at his peak, he’s as dominant as anyone in the game.
Lamet, after finally coming back from Tommy John surgery following a two-year absence, has really settled in, looking like himself pre-injury when he put up 10.94 K/9 and and a .210 batting average against in his rookie campaign of 2017. This season, he’s clocked in with 11.68 K/9 and a .227 BAA, exhibiting flashes of the dominance we’ve seen from Darvish.
There figures to be a standout showing from at least one of the two starters, and with a good chance the other, at worst, holds his own, a low-scoring series finale could be in store. Play: UNDER 8 (-105)
Yesterday’s Result: Cubs-Padres Under 8 (WIN)
2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 80-72-10, -1.25 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit