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Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves
Over/Under: 9.5
First pitch: 4:20 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Reynaldo Lopez (8-11, 5.08 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (5-5, 3.78 ERA)

Since finally debuting in 2019 back in June in his new digs, Keuchel has been very consistent for under bettors, churning out a 10-2-1 record for such wagers.

It’d be hard to see that trend suddenly flip with how the former American League Cy Young apparently has settled in. Keuchel’s given up just one total run across his last three starts, a stretch spanning 19 innings. He has also compiled seven K’s in each of those outings, representing his three highest-strikeout games this year outside of a 12-strikeout gem a month ago.

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Fortunately for the veteran left-hander, he has an opportune matchup in front of him this evening in efforts of sustaining his recent success. The White Sox strike out 9.56 times per game — fifth-most in baseball — and they homer only once every 34.31 at-bats with a southpaw on the hill, ranking them second-to-last in the American League in that department.

With a total as high as 9.5, we can figure we just need the other starters, Lopez, to eat up innings, and based on how often I’ve covered the fourth-year righty, you know he’s capable of a lot more than that.

In fact, Lopez really couldn’t have been better his last time out, when he kept the Texas Rangers hitless in five shutout innings. He walked only two and punched out six.  Lopez had to leave that aforementioned assignment early due to stomach discomfort and flu-like symptoms, but that doesn’t figure to affect him here. If anything, it will fire the Dominican Republic native up even more, considering he said how disappointed he was to exit early with his stuff working so effectively.

He vowed following his final start before the All-Star break that he’d be a different pitcher in the second half and indeed he has. In Lopez’s nine starts since the Midsummer Classic, he’s 4-3 with a desirable 2.82 ERA. Perhaps most notable, he’s yielded just four home runs as well, a sharp contrast from the 23 long balls he surrendered in the first half. Lopez is in a good place and can keep it going. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Giants Under 7.5 (loss)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 74-66-10, -0.25 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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