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Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Aaron Nola (12-3, 3.51 ERA) vs. Elieser Hernandez (2-5, 5.18 ERA)

For his career, Nola is only 3-5 against the Marlins in 12 meetings but he has also put together a 3.23 ERA in those starts while holding Miami hitters to a .205 average.

That desirable track record with the fish will serve as the foundation of this bet. Nola’s been especially dominant in two assignments opposing Miami this season, allowing just three runs (two earned) total across 14.2 innings and racking up 14 K’s compared to only two walks.

The former No. 7 overall draft pick is in a nice groove as well, making his outlook in the series finale even more enticing. Nola has yielded seven runs combined in his last four starts, compiling a 24-4 K/BB ratio within that span.

Nola’s job may be a little easier today with the Marlins’ regular No. 3 hitter, Brian Anderson, sidelined due to injury. Additionally, the batting order is without starting backstop Jorge Alfaro, who is one of the club’s few threats at the plate.

The more difficult part of cashing this under, obviously, is getting a serviceable performance from the other starter, Hernandez.

While the 24-year-old has largely been used as a swingman-type pitcher since first being called up last season, he’s proven to be far better as a starter. Hernandez possesses a 4.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 16 major league starts, which may not be spectacular but it’s a sharp contrast from the 5.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP he’s posted in 32 career appearances out of the bullpen.

Hernandez has also shown he prefers to pitch at Marlins Park. In his 76.1 innings at home, the right-hander owns a 3.66 ERA. On the road, his 7.71 ERA is more than double that. The Phillies lineup can be tough but the absence of Bryce Harper should help. Play: UNDER 8 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Mets Under 8 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 70-64-10, -1.90 units

*Each bet graded as of it were to win 1 unit

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