MLB Over/Under Bet: Will Paxton vs. Mad Bum Live Up To Hype?

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New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 6.5

First pitch: 7:15 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: James Paxton (2-2, 3.10 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 3.66 ERA)

It’s always fascinating to me when an over/under is set at less than 7 these days, as it’s definitely rare compared to only a handful of years ago. In this case, the oddsmakers are spot on to be as low with the number for tonight’s interleague series opener between the Yankees and Giants — and they still may go even lower before first pitch.

It’s two aces after all, Paxton and Bumgarner, set to go head-to-head in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. And both will be entering opportune spots to continue their usual quality work.

Paxton’s been as hot as anyone lately, amassing a delightful 24 strikeouts in his last two starts, spanning 14 innings. In the process, he held his opponents scoreless while issuing just five hits and a pair of walks total. Clearly, Paxton is settled in now in his new digs after he admitted to “trying too hard” at the onset of the season.

He’ll be in prime position for a similar outing against what has been one of the worst offenses in the league. The Giants are second-to-last in runs per game (3.12), and with a left-hander on the hill, they rank 25th in team OPS (.631), cranking out only seven homers in 337 at-bats.

It’s also worth noting that, as usual, San Francisco is anchored toward the bottom in home runs at home, being dead-last thus far with only five in their 10 games at Oracle Park.

Bumgarner might not be on the torrid run currently enjoyed by his counterpart but he’s still in a spot here in which he can be leaned upon heavily.

Aside from Mad Bum’s usual mastery in front of the home fans, under bettors should also appreciate that the Yanks actually may be worse at the plate than the Giants when a lefty is on the hill.

New York ranks 23rd with a .219 team batting average in that department and it’s going to be tough to improve upon that opposite one of the league’s best with such a banged-up lineup. 

The Bronx Bombers also strike out once every 3.05 ABs against southpaws, which should assist a strikeout artist like Bumgarner.

Get this play in right away before the over/under potentially goes down. Play: UNDER 6.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Indians-Astros Under 7.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 15-13, +0.3 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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