Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
First pitch: 4:20 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Alex Wood (0-0, 3.86 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (3-6, 5.97 ERA)
Very interesting the over/under for this game is only 9, with there definitely being superior pitching matchups from SunTrust Park this year that would also feature a comparable offense to the Reds while also drawing a higher total.
After all, Gausman has been a big disappointment in his first full season with the Braves, as evident in his 5.94 ERA through 15 starts. Wood, meanwhile, is making just his second start of the campaign after recently returning from an injury, and thus, he’s not the type of star that would garner such a total this soon.
Regardless, I’m on the under here. While Gausman has put up mostly poor numbers up to this point, he’s still talented enough to turn it around and has exhibited signs of doing just that.
In his two starts since coming off the injured list, the former No. 4 overall draft pick has looked closer to his older form, the one that generated a lot of trade interest during his time in Baltimore.
While he gave up six runs his last time out, Gausman also struck out eight for the second consecutive outing. That’s notable because before landing on the sidelines, Gausman, typically a strikeout artist, had previously recorded only one start in all with at least eight K’s. Just as impressive, he walked only one batter total in the pair of assignments.
Then there’s Wood, who has missed all but one start of his first year in Cincinnati. When he finally made his season debut last week, the results weren’t great, but they weren’t bad either given he was tasked with taking on the Colorado Rockies.
It’s not really getting any easier this time around in the rotation. But despite the fact that the Braves are seventh in the majors in team OPS (.797) against lefties, this is still a spot Wood can thrive in.
The seven-year veteran spent his first two-and-a-half seasons as a Brave and established himself in that organization as a southpaw on the rise. While he was there, Wood pitched well at the club’s old venue, Turner Field, and even after being traded during the 2015 season, he’s continued to thrive in Atlanta.
This will be Wood’s fourth start on the road against his old team. We’ll certainly hope it’s in line with the first three, in which he’s notched a 2.30 ERA. Evidently, Wood likes pitching in his old city and even just a decent showing would be very helpful here.
Wait first before placing your under wager. I already mentioned it’s a surprise that this total is only 9, meaning there’s no way it goes down and can only go to 9.5 leading up to first pitch. Play: UNDER 9
Yesterday’s Result: Twins-Marlins Under 8 (“loss”)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 61-52-9, +2.95 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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