Welcome back to another great day of playoff baseball. There is only one game on the schedule, but it is from the most exciting series so far this postseason, as the Philadelphia Phillies look to eliminate the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park for NLDS Game 4. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB player prop bets from each team for Thursday, Oct. 12.
The Phillies mashed the Braves last night, thanks to a two-home-run performance from Bryce Harper to take a 2-1 series lead. While Philadelphia has all the momentum, the Braves still have the best offense in baseball, and their top starting pitcher is getting the nod tonight in Spencer Strider.
This should be an excellent stand-alone MLB postseason matchup. Let’s take a look at the best MLB player prop picks for Braves-Phillies Game 4.
Best MLB Player Props Tonight
Spencer Strider Over Hits Allowed
His overall numbers may have dipped from his incredible 2022 rookie season, but Spencer Strider is still among the game’s most elite pitchers. He led the league in wins and strikeouts this season, and he has already re-written many strikeout records, including the ‘fastest to 100 strikeouts’ this season, when he did it in his first 61.0 IP.
However, he is giving up more hard contact this season, and while he is getting batters to swing at out-of-the-zone pitchers more often, he is allowing more walks. Last year, Strider started Game 3 in Philadelphia, and he struggled big-time, allowing five earned runs in just 2.1 IP.
During the regular season, Strider has owned the Phillies, as he is a career 8-0 in eight starts with a 1.90 ERA and 72 strikeouts in just 47.1 IP. In two starts at the Bank this season, Strider allowed two runs in 13.0 IP with 18 strikeouts and only two walks.
Even though the postseason has not been the same story, Strider has been very effective against this team, which means he may eat up a ton of innings tonight. Atlanta is dealing with a tired bullpen, so Strider should have a longer leash tonight. This Phillies offense is hot right now, and as long as Strider doesn’t have a repeat of last year’s postseason, he should be in long enough to allow at least four hits tonight.
Bryce Harper Over Home Runs
It does not make me feel great picking a guy to go deep coming off a two-home-run night, but Bryce Harper is just ridiculously hot right now and has been in every postseason game he has played in a Phillies uniform.
Dating back to his time with the Nationals, Harper was always a solid postseason performer. In 19 games with Washington, Harper had five home runs, 10 RBI, and 12 runs scored. However, since coming to the Phillies, Harper has blossomed into one of the best hitters this game has ever seen, especially in the playoffs.
He has already played in 22 playoff games with the Phillies and has a slash of .350/.435/.775 with a 1.210 OPS, nine home runs, and 18 RBI. His numbers against right-handed pitching are slightly down this season, but he also started the season slowly coming off Tommy John surgery, and he still is putting up All-Star numbers.
Strider has struggled against left-handed hitting this season, allowing a higher line-drive rate and Barrel%. Even though the Braves have the advantage in this matchup, Harper is swinging a very hot bat right now and should be in a good spot to go deep again tonight.
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