We are in the final few months of the baseball season, and each team’s odds to make the MLB Playoffs have shifted as the season has progressed. Odds from the betting market can help us decipher which teams have the best chances of making the postseason as we near the end of the 2022 season.
Teams’ chances to make the playoffs this season have increased by default with the expansion of the playoff field. It is now a 12-team field, up from the previous 10. This means the grind of the 162-game season results in 40% of the teams advancing to the postseason.
Odds to Make MLB Postseason
Here’s a look at MLB teams’ odds to make the playoffs at the All-Star Break from DraftKings, with the implied probability listed alongside the prices.
|Team||Playoff Odds||Implied Probability|
|ATL Braves||YES -20000 NO +2500||99.5|
|TOR Blue Jays||YES -525 NO +390||84|
|SEA Mariners||YES -525 NO +390||84|
|SD Padres||YES -500 NO +400||83.33|
|STL Cardinals||YES -370 NO +285||78.72|
|PHI Phillies||YES -330 NO +265||76.74|
|CLE Guardian||YES -170 NO +140||62.96|
|CHI White Sox||YES -150 NO +125||60|
|MIL Brewers||YES -145 NO +120||59.18|
|TB Rays||YES -125 NO +105||55.56|
|MIN Twins||YES +145 NO -175||40.82|
|BOS Red Sox||YES +475 NO -650||17.39|
|BAL Orioles||YES +475 NO -650||17.39|
|SF Giants||YES +750 NO -1100||11.76|
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All six division winners earn playoff berths, but they don’t automatically get a first-round bye. Rather, the division winners with the two best records from each league receive byes, with the remaining division winner and three wild cards meeting in best-of-three wild-card series. In the wild-card round, the higher seed hosts all three games. It doesn’t exactly seem fair, but we can table complaining about it for another three months.
What do futures odds say about a team’s chances to make the playoffs? DraftKings has provided the numbers, and we consulted our odds calculator to convert the prices into probabilities. The true probabilities are slightly less than the implied probabilities because of the house edge bookmakers build into their numbers.
Some teams are no longer available in this market, either because their playoff chances are virtually solidified (Yankees, Astros, Mets, Dodgers), or they’re too far back to have a realistic shot at advancing.
MLB Divisional Odds
Prior to the season, the two divisions with the tightest projected races were the American League East and the National League West. The Dodgers and Astros have solidified themselves as the owners of the National League West and American League West, respectively, so much so that the odds are no longer available for those two divisions.
The AL Central, meanwhile, is a virtual coin flip, while the Mets and Braves battle for the NL East crown.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds to win each division:
Odds to Win AL East
Odds to Win AL Central
Odds to Win NL East
Odds to Win NL Central