Wednesday presents another full MLB schedule. There are plenty of aces taking the mound tonight, but the best MLB strikeout props are for the third and fourth starting pitchers around the league, especially those taking the mound for teams in playoff contention. Keep reading to see the value we found on the market for yet another jam-packed day of baseball.
Today’s Betting Lines
Check out the lines from the top sports betting apps for the contests we pulled MLB strikeout props from today below. You can also review the rest of the action for tonight’s full schedule on our MLB odds page. Last but not least, shop around for the best sports betting promos on the market to take advantage of the thrilling baseball action on the horizon as playoff positioning becomes more critical.
MLB Strikeout Props (9/6/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Wednesday, Sept. 6.
Joe Ryan – Over Strikeouts
The Guardians and Twins will wrap up their second series against each other in the last week tonight. In each game so far, the Guardians have held each Twins’ pitcher under six strikeouts. However, they haven’t faced Joe Ryan in either of the contests over the last week. Ryan has made eight starts since July, and he has only tossed less than seven strikeouts once in that time span.
Currently, the Guardians are the second best at avoiding strikeouts overall, but they haven’t been playing like it as of late. Over the last 30 days, the Guardians have surrendered 235 strikeouts, which is outside of the top 10 in the category over that stretch. Their batting average has also dipped a full tenth compared to their season average in that time as well. Another Cleveland struggle that will help Ryan tonight is their run total over the last 30 days. With only 120 runs in the last month, they are bottom five in the category, which should help Ryan go deeper into the game.
Also, Ryan has one of the most dominant four-seamers in the league, despite below average velocity. The Guardians are a good four-seamer hitting team, but Ryan’s is untraditional due to how much movement he generates. He ranks 31st in MLB in four-seamer movement, which makes locating his pitch much more challenging than most. He uses it 57% of the time and draws a chase percentage 13 percentage points above league average, and a strike percentage eight points above league average, which is eighth best in the league.
Also, his second most used pitch in the splitter, which no Guardians’ hitter with more than 150 plate appearances has seen more than 20 times this season. That all serves Ryan well to go Over his listed total tonight.
Hyun Jin Ryu – Under Strikeouts
The Blue Jays own the last wild card spot in the AL by a half game. They are looking to complete a sweep of the A’s tonight and gain a little more distance between them and the Rangers, who have now fallen out of a playoff spot for the time being. Hyun Jin Ryu will take the mound tonight looking to complete the sweep for the Blue Jays.
Ryu now has six starts under his belt this season, and he only tossed four or more Ks in two of those starts. Two of the teams he missed the mark against were the Rockies and Cubs, who, like the A’s, are among the worst in the category. However, Oakland has been better as of late. They are seventh worst in Ks this season, but over the last 30 days, they have surrendered the 12th most. That’s not lights out, but it isn’t top 10 either.
Another possible reason the A’s may cover this line is that Ryu puts each of his top three pitches in the zone right at or above league average. Although they struggle in strikeouts, Oakland actually owns a chase percentage below league average. Taking the A’s to limit a pitcher’s strikeout count isn’t a trending bet this season, but at odds like +151 against a pitcher who hasn’t hit this mark against worse teams, it’s worth taking a shot at.
Chris Flexen – Over Strikeouts
Since being acquired by the Rockies from Seattle, Chris Flexen has tossed at least four strikeouts in five of his seven starts, including a six-strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks less than a month ago, who he is up against tonight. His last start couldn’t have gone more wrong, but based on his performance in a Rockies’ uniform, it was an outlier.
We like Flexen to bounce back tonight and cover this line for a few reasons. One being that the Diamondbacks haven’t performed up to par in strikeouts over the most month. They are fourth in strikeouts allowed this season, but over the last 30 days, they have surrendered the ninth most. Their batting average in that time span is .241, compared to their season average of .252, which signals a bad stretch at the plate for them.
Also, Flexen’s top two pitches (four-seamer and cutter) draw chase percentages above league average, and his second and third most used pitches (cutter and changeup) hold batters below league batting average for the pitch types. That will serve him well given that Arizona has 12 batters with more than 150 plate appearances this season and seven of them hit the cutter well below .250 and six of them hit the changeup below .250.