Today’s MLB schedule presents another full slate of action. There aren’t many potential Cy Young Award winners taking the mound tonight, but there are developing trends that make some interesting MLB strikeout prop picks for Wednesday. June 28.
Our selections of MLB strikeout props include an ace having a down year and an Over/Under split between two young and developing stars.
More MLB Betting: NL Cy Young Award Odds | 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year Odds | World Series odds
Tonight’s MLB Betting Lines
Here are odds from FanDuel Sportsbook on the three games for which we have strikeout prop picks tonight. Check out our MLB odds page for lines from all the best sports betting apps on Wednesday’s entire slate.
MLB Strikeout Props (6/28/23)
The odds for these wagers change constantly throughout the day, so be sure to search for the best lines ahead of the opening pitch for the game you’re interested in wagering on.
Zach Eflin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104 on FanDuel)
Zach Eflin is having a career year for the Rays, as he is posting career bests in ERA and WHIP. He is in a rhythm, having gone at least six innings in three of his four outings in June, and he also recorded at least five strikeouts in each contest this month and 36 total in May.
The Diamondbacks have been exceptional at the plate, having not surrendered an abundance of strikeouts this season, third-best in the category with only 605 so far. However, Eflin has been lights-out when it comes to generating strikeouts since May. He has a 33.9% zero swing percentage on his sinker (nearly eight percentage points higher than league average). He also has a 43.1% zero swing percentage for his curveball. Arizona’s offense hasn’t faced a pitcher who is making teams chase as much as Eflin is at the moment.
The last time they did was against Aaron Nola, and he racked up nine strikeouts, proving there is some vulnerability when challenged. Eflin isn’t Nola, but he is similar in that he does have three reliable pitches, however, none of his go-to pitches is a fastball. The variety of pitches at his disposal should keep the Diamondbacks guessing at the plate enough for him to cash the Over on Wednesday’s strikeout prop.
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+118 on FanDuel)
Nola has taken a step back across the board this year. However, if there is one area that he is as hot as any, it’s strikeouts. After a slow start to the season in the Ks department, he has revved it up in May and June. He has accumulated 70 strikeouts in two months with a game still left to play.
In seven straight games now, the Phillies’ right-hander has thrown at least five strikeouts. That’s no accident. He has a 43.5% zero swing percentage on his curveball, which is his primary pitch and the reason there aren’t many better at getting batters to chase.
Additionally, the Cubs are in the top 10 in MLB in the strikeout category with 708 on the season. That’s in large part due to seven of their primary hitters averaging .240 or higher in that category. That includes Patrick Wisdom at .389 with 208 plate appearances and Trey Mancini at .294 with 211 plate appearances.
At +118, we like the value of Nola’s chances at hitting the Over against the Cubs’ struggling lineup.
Christian Javier Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125 on BetMGM)
Christian Javier compiled five strikeouts when he faced the Cubs in May en route to a 7-3 victory for the Astros. However, he has significantly cooled off since May. In June, he has thrown only 10 strikeouts in four games and hasn’t surpassed more than three strikeouts in his last three games. He was also pulled in his last start against the Mets in the second inning after surrendering four runs to start the game.
The Cardinals are in the bottom 10 in strikeouts in MLB with only 649. They’ll need to maintain that discipline considering Javier does have a 40.2% zero swing percentage for his four-seamer. However, the Cardinals have been good at making pitchers work. If Javier is forced to use more of his arsenal, it doesn’t bode well for him or the Astros’ chances of winning the game.
Javier is putting his four-seamer in the zone at a high clip (44.6%), and as the season continues, it hasn’t been as effective. St. Louis is just out of the top 10 in runs per game, which means things could get out of hand quickly for the struggling Javier if he isn’t careful, especially since the Cubs have seen him once already this season.
Given Javier’s pedestrian month of June, we don’t like his chances to hit the Over on this one.
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