We started the week going 1-for-2 in our strikeout prop selections. With another jammed-packed schedule set for Wednesday, we have plenty of options to choose from to get our record back over .500. We hit on an Under selection yesterday, and we’re leaning offense again for Wednesday’s MLB strikeout prop picks, as fatigue seems to be getting to multiple pitchers as the season progresses.
Today’s action: MLB HR prop picks for Thursday, July 27 | Today’s MLB strikeout props
Our MLB strikeout props for today include fading two starters from high-profile teams, including the current strikeout leader, and taking the Over on a pitcher who provides significant value on his betting line.
More MLB Betting: NL Cy Young Odds 2023 | AL Cy Young Odds | World Series Odds
Today’s MLB Betting Lines
Here are the betting lines on Caesars Sportsbook for the Wednesday games we pulled our strikeout props from. Our MLB odds page has lines on all the games from more of the best sports betting apps. Before you get in on the action, also check out the current sportsbook promo offers on the market.
MLB Strikeout Prop Picks (7/26/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Wednesday.
Spencer Strider Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+104 on FanDuel)
Spencer Strider is starting to run away with the strikeout crown for the season – now 27 Ks ahead of second place. The Braves have gone 8-1 in his last nine starts and are looking to add to that record against the Boston Red Sox tonight. During this stretch, Strider tossed 83 strikeouts and pitched fewer than nine in a game only three times, which makes him hard to wager against in this category.
However, the Red Sox have put together a nice stretch of baseball of their own at the plate. In their last nine games, they haven’t surrendered double-digit strikeouts to any team they have faced. They are also averaging nearly 10 hits and six runs a game in that stretch. That’s not too surprising considering they have the third-best batting average in baseball at .266.
Not only do the Red Sox get to the ball well, but they get to Strider’s primary pitch consistently. Strider uses the fastball 59% of the time and puts it in the zone 57% of the time (seven percentage points above league average). Only two of the 11 Boston hitters with more than 100 plate appearances hit the fastball at an average below .250. Given the outlook of the matchup, we like offense to win out and keep Strider Under his strikeout total on Wednesday.
Carlos Rodon Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-108 on FanDuel)
Game 2 of the Subway Series is tonight, and Carlos Rodon takes the mound for the Yankees. Rodon now has three starts under his belt since returning from his year-long hiatus due to injury. All of those starts were against top-10 strikeout teams, and he has yet to register seven strikeouts in a start this year. The Mets are the fourth best at avoiding strikeouts this season, which presents Rodon’s biggest challenge of the year so far.
When it comes to this strikeout total, it’s important to note that Rodon hasn’t thrown 90-plus pitches in a game yet and hasn’t gone past five innings. If that trend continues, he would need to register seven strikeouts in five innings to cover this wager against one of the better lineups in baseball at avoiding strikeouts. That’s not due to a good batting average, but instead the Mets owe it to plate discipline. Their team chase percentage is two percentage points below the league average, and when they do chase, they make contact above league average.
We’re leaning on the Mets bats to keep Rodon from going Over his total on this one thanks to plate discipline. Rodon may need more time to return to form and rack up strikeouts against a lineup like the Mets.
Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+117 on Caesars)
We like the value of this pick. Patrick Sandoval has a lot going for him when it comes to getting Over this total as he takes the mound for the Angels tonight. In four of his last six starts, he has tossed at least six strikeouts. Additionally, Sandoval has faced seven of the Detroit Tigers’ 13 batters with more than 100 plate appearances this season. In 29 at-bats against the seven batters, he tossed 11 strikeouts and is allowing only a .207 batting average.
Additionally, Sandoval has a nice mix of pitches at his disposal to keep the Tigers guessing. He uses the slider, changeup, and fastball at nearly identical clips. The vast majority of batters for Detroit struggle with one or more of the pitches in his repertoire. That will serve Sandoval well against a team with an above-average chase rate and is just outside of the top 10 in strikeouts on the year.
Look for Sandoval to reach the Over on his total for the night.
More MLB Betting News & Analysis
MLB Player Prop Bets for Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna Jr. on Friday, Sept. 22
Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 21
Top MLB NRFI Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 20
About the Author
