We’re 3-for-6 on our MLB strikeout props this week, and we’re looking to finish strong. Our Over selections haven’t been as fruitful for us as we would have liked, and we’re leaning Under on all of our MLB strikeout prop picks today, Friday, July 28, to get us back to .500 for the week.
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Today’s Betting Lines
Here are the odds on FanDuel Sportsbook for the contests we offer prop selections for today. Most of our selections came from FanDuel, but you can review more lines on our MLB odds page from the other top sports betting apps. Also, check out the best MLB betting promos on the market.
MLB Strikeout Props (7/28/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Friday.
Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-122 on FanDuel)
Grayson Rodriguez is in the middle of his first professional campaign, and he is performing quite well for the Orioles this year. With the exception of a few high-run games, he has provided sufficient pitching depth for Baltimore. He has a 2-2 record, 1.66 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts in 12 starts, and he has thrown at least six Ks in seven of his 12 starts. However, only one of those games was against a team in the top 10 of the league in avoiding strikeouts.
The Yankees are the second team he faces this season that fits that bill. Not only have the Bronx Bombers been exceptional at the plate, but they have also been among the best all season at not striking out. In their last three games, their highest strikeout total was eight, and six of those were against future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. They are also ninth-best in the league this year in avoiding strikeouts.
We like Rodriguez Under tonight also due to his primary pitch being the four-seamer, which he uses 45% of the time and puts in the zone at a 48% clip. Only four of the Yankees’ 14 batters with more than 100 plate appearances this season hit the four-seamer at a clip below .250. The Yankees are also one of the more disciplined teams in MLB, posting a team chase rate below league average. Look for New York to hold the rookie below his posted total on this line.
Christian Javier Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+106 on FanDuel)
Christian Javier has only thrown six or more strikeouts in one of his last 11 starts for the Houston Astros. The one game he did was against the Angels, who are a bottom-10 team in strikeouts this season. The Rays aren’t great at avoiding strikeouts, but they are significantly better than the Angels in the category.
Additionally, Javier’s numbers have been down across the board since June. After a dominating month of May, the bottom fell out for Javier. From May to June, his monthly totals went from 16 hits to 30, from eight runs allowed to 15, from 32 strikeouts to just 11, and from 30 innings on the mound to 23 in five starts each month. Through three starts in July, he has allowed 14 hits for 13 earned runs, which has earned him a 7.80 ERA so far.
Javier is using the four-seamer at a 59% clip this season. He only averages around 92 miles per hour, but he gets away with it thanks to nearly 11 inches of vertical movement. As crafty as the pitch is, it isn’t leaving batters guessing as much at the plate, which is why he is allowing a career-worst .276 batting average on balls in play this season.
We’re taking the Under on this one primarily due to his struggles.
Logan Webb Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110 on BetMGM)
Logan Webb is among MLB’s strikeout leaders this season, but he hasn’t racked them up against the league’s better lineups. He tossed six or more strikeouts only against a top-10 team in avoiding strikeouts in only one of his 21 starts this season. The Red Sox are in the top 10 at avoiding strikeouts and are tied for the second-best batting average in the league.
Additionally, not only are the Red Sox one of the more disciplined teams in baseball, but they are also one of the best at making contact when pitchers are able to get them to chase. Last but not least, Webb’s two primary pitches are the sinker and changeup, which he uses at clips of 38% and 37%, respectively. Against fastball pitches, only two of the 11 Red Sox batters with more than 100 plate appearances hit the fastball less than .250. Also, only two of Boston’s batters hit offspeed pitches below .250.
The numbers don’t suggest this is a good matchup for Webb to go Over his listed total tonight, which is why we’re leaning offense to win out on this betting line, too.
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