The MLB playoff races are heating up. The lead for each American League division is within a game and a half, and two of the National League divisions have two teams within four games of first place. As each game takes on greater importance at this point in the season, let’s take a look at MLB strikeout props picks for today, Monday, July 31.
Tuesday’s Action: MLB Strikeout Props for Aug. 1, 2023
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Today’s Betting Lines
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MLB Strikeout Props (7/31/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Monday.
Charlie Morton Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115 on BetMGM)
Charlie Morton takes the mound to finish out the month for the Braves against the Angels tonight. In July, Morton has yet to pitch seven strikeouts in a single game. In his last two starts, he allowed four runs and registered strikeout totals of only four and one. In his last start, he was pulled halfway through three innings.
Whatever the reason, Morton isn’t at his best, which doesn’t build confidence in him throwing a lot of Ks tonight.
Also, although the Angels are one of the worst teams in the league at striking out (973 on the season), they are also great at making contact. Their collective batting average is .256, which is tied for eighth best in the league. Their biggest strength at the plate is hitting the fastball. Only two of their 14 batters with 100 or more plate appearances hit the fastball at clips below .250. The fastball is one of Morton’s two most frequent pitches.
Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118 on FanDuel)
Seth Lugo has pitched at least six strikeouts in four of his last five starts for the Padres, and tonight he is up against a bottom-10 team in strikeouts in the Rockies, who now have 965 total on the season. Additionally, Lugo has faced five of the 13 Rockies batters with more than 100 plate appearances this season and six total players from the team. Against those bats, he is posting a .111 ERA, a .222 slugging percentage, and he has struck them out 10 times in 27 plate appearances.
Another reason we’re taking Lugo to go Over his total tonight is his pitching repertoire. He uses the curveball and four-seamer at high clips, and he tosses in the sinker and slider as needed for additional outs. Between the four, he should be able to string together the six strikeouts he needs to cover this wager. That’s especially so given the Rockies have a chase percentage three percentage points above league average.
J.P. France Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115 on Caesars)
J.P. France has been a bright spot for the Houston Astros’ depleted starting rotation this season. He is 6-3 on the season, and the Astros won his last four starts. However, high strikeout totals aren’t usually how he helps lead his team to victory. Ground balls are how he accumulates outs, posting a ground ball percentage three percentage points above league average.
Another important reason for taking France on the Under is the Guardians’ bats. They are by far the best team in MLB at avoiding strikeouts. They’ve surrendered only 732 on the season, which is 375 less than the Twins who lead the league with 1,107. The Guardians haven’t allowed double-digit strikeout games in 24 consecutive contests. The nine or fewer strikeouts they’ve given up in each of the last 24 contests are distributed across multiple pitchers during the game.
The highest strikeout total they have allowed to one pitcher in their last seven games was five, and that was to Dylan Cease, who is tied for 13th in the category this season.
What also makes the Under so enticing on this line is that the Guardians have a chase percentage above league average, but they also have a chase contact percentage eight points above league average. That means, even when France locates his pitch exactly where he wants it to be, the payoff may not be there.
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