Tuesday’s baseball schedule has a full lineup for sports bettors to choose from, and we sifted through the sportsbooks for a few of the best options. Our MLB strikeout props picks tonight include the Under on a pitcher working his way back from injury, and the Over on two pitchers whose teams are as exciting as any to watch.
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Today’s Betting Lines
Here are the odds on Caesars Sportsbook for the contests mentioned below. Check out betting lines for the full slate on our MLB odds page, as we always advise shopping around the top sports betting apps to find the best odds for your wagers. Also, check out the best sports betting promos on the market.
MLB Strikeout Props (8/31/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Tuesday.
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+108 on Caesars)
We’ve taken the Yankees’ star twice on the Under since he returned from his year-long injury recovery, and we’ve hit both times. In four starts since he returned, Rodon has registered six strikeouts only once, and that was against the Rockies, who are a bottom-10 team in the category with 976 on the season.
Additionally, Rodon just registered 90 pitches in a game for the first time this season in his last start. Due to his low pitch counts since he returned, he has yet to make it six innings, which gives him less time to find his rhythm and cover his listed strikeout totals in matchups.
Rodon is obviously still working himself back into form, which makes the Under a favorable wager. So far this season, he is using the four-seamer at a 65% clip, which is registering a 39.4% hard contact percentage (eight percentage points above league average). That alludes to players getting to his primary pitch frequently.
Fortunately for the Yankees, it hasn’t been all bad for Rodon. His ground ball percentage is 49% on his four-seamer (15 percentage points above league average). So, he hasn’t been giving up an extensive number of runs, but the bulk of his outs are ground ball outs.
Timing doesn’t help Rodon on this betting line either, as the Rays are performing well at the plate. They haven’t allowed more than four strikeouts to a single pitcher in their last three games, and they have registered at least 32 plate appearances and four runs in each game.
Spencer Strider Over 9.5 Strikeouts (-138 on FanDuel)
Spencer Strider has been absolutely dominant in July, registering at least 10 strikeouts in all but one of his five starts last month for the Braves. His performance in the previous month helped to push his strikeout total to 199, which is 28 more than second place. On Tuesday, he faces the Angels, the fourth-worst team in MLB in the category. They have surrendered 10 or more strikeouts in seven of their last 10 games, including 13 in the first game of the current series between the two.
Strider is a young pitcher, so his repertoire isn’t as developed just yet. As of now, it doesn’t have to be. He can put his four-seamer anywhere comfortably, and it draws a 31.7% chase rate and averages 97 mph. With youth on his side, his arm doesn’t seem to be slowing down as the season progresses. Against the Diamondbacks, the best in the league at avoiding Ks (only 741 total this season), Strider tossed 13 strikeouts. Regardless of how disciplined or good a lineup is, Strider is pushing the ball past batters before they can get to it.
Although a small sample size, it’s still worth noting that Strider has faced five Angel players for a total of 16 plate appearances. In those matchups, he tossed 10 strikeouts. That’s a 62.5 strikeout percentage.
Ben Lively Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+124 on FanDuel)
Ben Lively is having a career year for the Reds, posting a 3.76 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 11 starts. In July, he pitched five or more strikeouts in two of his four starts. The two games he didn’t he had to pitch on short rest, going on only three and four days in between those starts. Tonight, he takes the mound on full rest against the 10th-worst strikeout team in MLB, the Cubs.
Lively’s pitch selection is another bonus on this betting line. He uses the four-seamer, slider, and changeup at clips of 34%, 24%, and 21%, respectively. Of the 12 Cubs’ batters with 100 or more plate appearances, eight hit breaking ball pitches at clips below .250, and five hit fastballs at clips below .250. Given the Cubs’ struggles against Lively’s repertoire, we like him to keep Chicago guessing enough to go Over his listed total tonight.
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