Today, we’re sticking to under-the-radar pitchers as the market provides some of the best value. Our picks for Tuesday include two low-risk, high-reward options against struggling lineups, and one Under on a pitcher who has struggled all season long, despite a changing scenery and joining a contender recently. Keep reading for our MLB prop selections for the day.
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Today’s Betting Lines
Here are the game lines on BetMGM Sportsbook for our Tuesday MLB strikeout props. As usual, we also encourage you to check out the odds on all the top sports betting apps to ensure you’re getting the most value, which you can do quickly via our MLB odds page. Now is a good time to get in on the action as the sportsbooks recently updated the current sports bonuses for new users.
MLB Strikeout Props (8/8/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Tuesday.
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 on Caesars)
Since June, Sonny Gray has only tallied six or more strikeouts twice in his last 12 starts for the Twins. However, his last start was one of the games he reached the milestone. In his last trip to the mound, he compiled eight strikeouts on 77 pitches vs. the Cardinals in six innings. Tonight, he is up against the Tigers, who are worse in the category than the Cardinals.
Additionally, Gray has faced 11 of the Tigers’ 11 batters for a total of 64 plate appearances over his career. In those battles, he registered 23 strikeouts and only allowed a .203 batting average. That’s a 35.9% strikeout percentage historically — 14 percentage points above league average this year.
Another reason we like Gray to go Over his total for tonight is the versatility of his pitches against a struggling lineup. Not only do the Tigers strikeout frequently, but the team’s batting average is subpar as well this year, which means Gray’s repertoire could cause extensive problems. In combination with Gray’s fastball pitches, he uses the curveball and slider at 19% and 18% clips this season, both of which draw chase percentages of eight and nine percentage points above league average, respectively.
Miles Mikolas Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130 on BetMGM)
The Cardinals’ veteran Miles Mikolas recently returned from a five-game suspension on Aug. 1, and he tossed seven strikeouts against the Twins. Given that fastball pitches are his primary pitches, the rest seemed to have done him some good, granted the Twins are the worst in the league in strikeouts. However, the Rays haven’t been lights out in the category as of late themselves.
In their last four games, their strikeout totals have been nine, 11, 11, and 13. They are currently middle of the pack with 985 total on the season and just four away from 12th worst in the league. The Rays are in yet another batting slump, and Mikolas is one of the more balanced pitchers in the league. He uses the sinker (27%), four-seamer (24%), slider (23%), and curveball (20%).
The Rays have 13 batters with more than 150 plate appearances this year, and 11 hit the curveball at clips well below .250 and another seven hit the slider well below .250. They are better against fastball pitches, but Mikolas’ sinkers draw a chase percentage three points above league average, and his four-seamer draws a chase percentage about six points above league average. That’s a lot working in his favor tonight.
Yonny Chirinos Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120 on FanDuel)
Since being traded to the Braves in late July, Yonny Chirinos has compiled eight strikeouts in two games, including a five-strikeout performance in his last start. However, that came against the Angels, who are the fourth worst in the league in the category. For the season, he has only pitched four or more strikeouts in three of his 17 starts.
Additionally, Chirinos has yet to surpass 80 pitches in a Braves uniform. In his first game, he allowed four runs on 61 pitches and didn’t make it through three innings. In his second start, he allowed three runs on 75 pitches and was pulled after four innings. That was against the Angels and Brewers. Tonight, he is up against the Pirates, who have racked up runs as of late. In their last four games, they scored seven (Game 1 of the current series), four, two, and eight runs.
Not only will Chirinos have to rack up the strikeouts in limited time given how quickly he is being pulled from the mound, but he’ll also have to limit their scoring, which his 4.42 ERA doesn’t allude to being likely.
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