Yesterday, we went 2-for-3 with our MLB strikeout props, hitting on both of our Over selections. Both picks had values of +100 or higher. To keep with our high-value selections this week, we went heavy on FanDuel for our Wednesday picks, as the sportsbook provided exceptional value on a variety of lines for today’s contests. If you hit on any of our picks today, you can expect a pretty good payout.
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Today’s Betting Lines
We leaned on FanDuel for value today, so here are the lines from the sportsbook for the games we pulled our MLB strikeout prop suggestions. You can check out the other games and odds for all matchups on the schedule tonight from the other top sports betting apps on our MLB odds page. If you like the value for today’s betting lines, claim one of the top MLB sports betting promos on the market to get in on the action.
| Game Time | Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu (9/28) @ 1:10pm ET | OAK Athletics | +1.5 +105 | +220 | u8.5 -120 |
| MIN Twins | -1.5 -135 | -303 | o8.5 -105 | |
| Thu (9/28) @ 7:20pm ET | CHI Cubs | +1.5 -161 | +120 | u9.5 -120 |
| ATL Braves | -1.5 +135 | -145 | o9.5 +100 | |
| Thu (9/28) @ 8:40pm ET | LA Dodgers | -2.5 +100 | -227 | u11.5 -105 |
| COL Rockies | +2.5 -120 | +180 | o11.5 -115 |
MLB Strikeout Props (8/9/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Wednesday.
Bailey Ober Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120 on FanDuel)
With the exception of his last start in which he pitched against the Diamondbacks (third best at avoiding strikeouts), the Twins’ right hander pitched at least five strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts. That puts him right around his expectation for tonight. He’ll need to get one additional strikeout against a Detroit Tigers lineup that bats .233 as a team and is 12th in strikeouts with 1,001 total on the season.
Ober has faced the Tigers once already this season. In that outing, he went six innings, tossed eight Ks, and allowed three runs in a 6-3 victory for the Twins. Additionally, he has faced 12 of the Tigers’ batters 44 times throughout his career, and he is only allowing a .227 batting average and struck them out 14 times in those battles. That’s a nearly 32% strikeout percentage, 12 percentage points higher than this year’s strikeout percentage average.
The last reason we expect Ober to go Over his total tonight is his dynamic pitching style. In addition to his four-seamer that draws a chase percentage seven percentage points above league average, he uses the changeup and slider flawlessly to keep batters guessing, and both of them draw chase percentages above league average as well. That will go a long way in covering this betting line, considering eight of the Tigers’ 13 batters with more than 150 plate appearances this season hit the slider and changeup well below .250.
Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104 on FanDuel)
This is a high-value option that’s hard to believe is on the market. The Braves’ ace recently returned from injury after missing three months to take on the Cubs, and he pitched eight Ks en route to a shutout. Tonight, he is up against the Pirates who have struck out a double-digit number of times in seven of their last 12 games, including an 11-strikeout performance in the first game of the current series with the Braves.
Fried’s primary pitch is the four-seamer, which causes the best in the league problems at the plate. It draws a chase percentage about seven percentage points above league average, a strike percentage five points above league average, and it is limiting opponents to a .213 batting average on the season. He is able to create the confusion he does with his fastball thanks to a steady mix of curveballs, sliders, and changeups. His slider and changeups both draw chase percentages above league average, but the changeup, in particular, draws a chase percentage about 18 percentage points above league average.
The Tigers only have eight batters with more than 150 plate appearances this season. Five of them hit the changeup well below .250, four of them hit the curveball well below .250, and six of them hit the slider well below .250. Look for the former Cy Young winner to have his way tonight in his second game back from injury.
Bobby Miller Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+124 on FanDuel)
The Dodgers’ rookie is having a strong start to his career, posting a 6-2 record on the season. He has pitched at least five strikeouts in all but four of his 12 starts in 2023. That’s likely due to his well-developed pitching repertoire. However, he is coming off a shaky start against the Padres, in which he only went 3.2 innings before being pulled and registered a total of three strikeouts.
Although he tossed five or more strikeouts against better lineups, the Diamondbacks present a unique challenge. They are top 10 in plate discipline and top 10 at making contact outside the zone. They are also just a tenth of a percentage point out of the top 10 in batting average. Miller has a variety of pitches in his arsenal, but his top three are being hit at clips of .270 or better, including the sinker which is his primary tool that batters are hitting at .296.
Given the matchup, we like Miller to draw the bulk of his outs via ground ball outs, which he draws four percentage points above league average.
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